MLB 101

RGIS

2007-01-08T00:07:00.000-06:00

The last time I looked at this it was January 8th, apparently. I had a post I was inevitably unhappy with because it failed to live up to some standard. I don't know what that standard is. If you're looking for good writing, go to FireJoeMorgan.com (link to the right) and read the posts about Darin Estad being a gamer and Jim Hendry's expertise of on-base percentage. I don't read many blogs but FJM is one of the better ones I've come across.

The offseason is probably at it's slowest point but should be picking up once pitchers + catchers gets to a month away. I have some more things to write about, but I haven't really thought through it all. Sleepers and other odd lists will be coming. I hope Tiki Barber retires.

Here are the 2007 Starting Pitcher rankings. Pretty rough and old, but I'll make up for obvious mistakes. The MLB 2007 ranking will be on the fly as it's not made up:

EDIT: So because it was a lot of work to rank pitchers from league to league because there are so many and there's so much mediocrity coming with it, for the past few days I've tried to devise a better way to rank so many pitchers. And that's really the problem; there are just so many pitchers to select from you get overwhelmed with indecision from all the shit on the page in front of you. I ranked every pitcher I deem worthy with a letter grade; A to A-B to B to B-C and so on. I then ranked the players who fell into those group.

MLB:

1) Johan Santana, Min
2) Chris Carpenter, StL
3) Carlos Zambrano, ChC
4) Roy Oswalt, Hou - I don't like him here, but it seems everyone else does. I've never been a huge fan of his strikeout numbers and looking again, the only thing he's ever really had a large amount of success with is Ws, which aren't exactly predictable. A good pitcher, but if I had him on my team I'd want him to be my #2.
5) Roy Halladay, Tor - He's not Canadian.
6) Scott Kazmir, TB
7) Jake Peavy, SD - I'd probably put Oswalt here and Peavy at four if I were drafting a team. Peavy pitches in the best park, in the "worst" division, in the worst league.
8) Matt Cain, SF - I think I added and dropped him 12 times last year and alas he ends up at eight. I trust him a bit more than I did last year because he should cut down on his walks if only by 20. But the BAA and the HR totals look very good.
9) Cole Hamels, Phi - I had only heard things until I saw him pitch, and was under the impression that he topped at like 91. Then he threw 95. His strikeout numbers are Rich-Hill Minor League-esque.
10) John Smoltz, Atl - #10 at 40 years old? But does he honestly look like he's slowing down? The injury probability is sky high, I'm sure, but the man threw 232 innings at 39. Roger Clemens has thrown more than 220 innings once since 1999 and those 220 innings came in 2001 when he was 38 years old. Not to mention, Clemens wasn't coming off an incredible career shift from starter to closer and back to starter. Yes he is old, but Smoltz has a pretty incredible career line and might have one great year in him in the weak NL.
11) Ben Sheets, Mil - I am editing this post nearly a month after I started it and Sheets has moved from 25th to 11th. I've seen him ranked as high as 3rd, but generally around 6-10. I obviously would've that was ludicrous a month ago, but his numbers are just too good. His bb/9 and k/9 are both just so much better than so many other guys that he has to be at least here. I'm paranoid of injuries, especially to pitchers, and probably wouldn't even take Sheets if he came to me in the first five rounds. His innings has declined every subsequent year for three years, although most of '05 can be attributed to that weird ear infection thing.
12) John Lackey, Ana
13) Scott Olsen, Fla
14) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bos - DICEEEE-K, RIGHT? RIGHT GUYS? I think I had him a maybe 20 a few weeks ago, where everyone else did. He's better than that and is still a youngin. Way better than the options past him. MOVE ON TO TIER THREE, PLZ.
15) Brandon Webb, Ari - Roy Halladay-lite.
16) Aaron Harang, Cin
17) Jeremy Bonderman, Det
18) Erik Bedard, Bal - I tink he's owsum.
19) Jason Schmidt, LAD
20) Danny Haren, Oak
21) Jered Weaver, Ana - Matt Cain : Me :: Jered Weaver : others. I understand this and you could flip the two if you see fit, but Weavers throws like 92 with control and Cain throws 97...and sometimes 98. I just have to think hitters will swing and miss at Cain's shit more often than Weaver's.
22) Felix Hernandez, Sea - Probably deserves to be a bit higher than 21. He's still extremely young at 21, but I think he'll get closer to his '05 and minor league numbers.
23) Curt Schilling, Bos
24) Rich Hill, ChC - For those who I haven't told yet; the 2007 Bill James Handbook pitcher projections have Rich Hill 2nd in the majors in strikeouts with 241, only five less than Johan's projected 246. I really think Hill will most likely reach that. He's already 27 and should now be peaking. By the end of 2007 he may be the Cubs best starter.
25)
26) Jon Papelbon, Bos - You're guess is as good as mine. The BJH seems to love him for next year with an ERA under 3.
27) Brett Myers, Phi
28) Adam Wainwright, StL
29) Chris Capuano, Mil
30) Greg Maddux, SD - I'm probably totally overrating Petco, but whatever. I've loved Maddux forever so I'll give the old man the benefit of the doubt.
31) Barry Zito, SF - From a great pitchers park to another great pitchers park but also from the AL to the NL. The NL is looking really weird this year.
32) Dontrelle Willis, Fla - DUI
33) Justin Verlander, Det - DED (arm)
34) Randy Johnson, Ari
35) Brad Penny, LAD
36) Mike Mussina, NYY
37) A.J. Burnett, Tor
38) Andy Pettitte, NYY
39) Anibal Sanchez, Fla
40) Rich Harden, Oak
41) C.C. Sabathia, Cle
42) Noah Lowry, SF
43) Ervin Santana, Ana
44) Chuck James, Atl
45) Josh Beckett, Bos
46) Jeff Francis, Col
47) Brandon McCarthy, Tex
48) Anthony Reyes, StL
49) Bronson Arroyo, Cin
50) Josh Johnson, Fla

A quiz we can enjoy...

2006-12-14T23:56:00.000-06:00

Finally ESPN has given nerds the one power rankings they actually enjoy doing. Here you can find ESPN's GM-Rank quiz. I'm discussing it with my friend Jon, and past the top five and bottom five, it's pretty difficult. Here's how mine came out:

1) Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics - Call it a boner, he uses what money he has wisely and his teams compete year after year. I'm not sure how to explain the A's seemingly .900 winning percentage in the second half of any given season, but Beane probably has something to do with that, too.
2) Terry Ryan, Minnesota Twins - Incredible player development, really. He spotted Liriano while SABEAN was too busy with Merkin Valdez ("Where are they now?" candidate, I'm sure) and also got the most dominant reliever in the AL the past three years in Joe Nathan. Mauer, Morneau, and Santana are all products of the Twins system, and those three players might be in the top five at their respective positions. Not to mention players like Michael Cuddyer and Brad Radke, but also guys like Jason Kubel (maybe), Matt Garza, Pat Neshek and J.D. Durbin. What Ryan has done with very little money is pretty incredible.
3) Larry Beinfest, Florida Marlins - Ha. The Marlins are my favorite NL team and have such an incredible base of players it's astounding; they have THREE starting pitcher spots held by players under the age 23 in Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson, while the fourth spot occupied by a 25 year old named Dontrelle Willis. They have perhaps the second best hitter in the majors in Miguel Cabrera, a 22 year old shortstop in Hanley Ramirez who put up a .480 slg% in his rookie year in that park. And then Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, and of course former White Sox duo Miguel Olivo and Joe Borchard.
4) Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox - He spends his money well...which can be said for maybe three GMs on this list. Cashman and maybe Minaya are the others.
5) Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians - Highest differential in their actual W/L and their pythagorean W/L records the last two years. I'm not so high on their pitching, as they don't really have that 22 year old guy thorwing 98. Sabathia is still young, and I did expect something productive from him last year, but he's going to need to stay healthy, you can't possibly not be scared by that mans size.
6) Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
7) Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox - Oh Kenny. Kenny's success as a GM, to me, relies on one deal. If they White Sox can somehow figure out the biggest question mark in the major leagues in Javier Vazquez, then this deal won't be too terrible because Vazquez could be a great pitcher. His peripherals year after year are quite good; 7.8 k/9, 2.40 bb/9, and he's topped 200 innings six out of the last seven years. What the White Sox gave up might only be Mike Cameron, but he could be Eric Davis. If Chris Young ends up being the latter and his ceiling really is that high, this Kenny would drop down in this list. The Thome deal was great, especially because he got Gonzalez back. He recognized some sort of talent in Dye, and shouldn't get credit for a career year, but ten million for two years with an option? With the contracts being signed this offseason? That's a great move.
8) Bob Melvin, Milwaukee Brewers - I liked the Brewers a whole lot better going into 2006 than I do going into 2007.
9) John Schuerholz, Atlanta Braves
10) Kevin Towers, San Diego Padres
11) Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers
12) J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto Blue Jays
13) Walt Jocketty, St. Louis Cardinals - It's at this point where I discovered I found no redeeming qualities in any of the following GMs.
14) Dan O'Dowd, Coloradio Rockies - A huge disparity between where he's ranked, where I see him ranked, and why he ranks that way, right? O'Dowd has had terrible teams with terrible contracts, but his team now saves him in my mind. Helton was a bad deal (although maybe not so much now), but he's still a productive player. The Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton deals were so fucking terrible, it's hard to give him any credit. But right now he has Helton at first, Troy Tulowitzki at SS, Garrett Atkins at third with Ian Stewart on the way, Matt Holliday in left and Brad Hawpe in right. In that park that's a pretty talented offense. Apparently, O'Dowd also has so much pitching he can trade away his best starter in 2006 Jason Jennings. Taveras, while a horrible hitter, is quite the defender...and that is one large ass center field.
15) Pat Gillick, Philadelphia Phillies - Only one year into the job and he hasn't ruined their chances yet, saved by Chicago Cub GM Jim Hendry (much, much lower) with the Soriano contract, Gillick could have a big year next offseason. He's got an incredible base of young players with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and maybe Shane Victorino, which is a lot more than many other teams can say. If he maintains those players and can add some actual pitching talent, they should be quite good.
16) Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers - Like Gillick except not old and bad. He's got a young team with good players and some pitching prospects (Jon Danks and Thomas Diamond). If he keeps throwing 100 million at pitchers like Zito, he'll be out of a job.
17) Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers
18) Omar Minaya, New York Mets - Another big disparity between where he ends up and where I put him. He was bad in Montreal and everyone seems to forget he jumped ship to the Mets when they moved. He also thought about trading for Sam Sosa but the Orioles beat him to it.
19) Tim Purpura, Houston Astros
20) Josh Byrnes, Arizona Diamondbacks - Ummm...who is Josh Byrnes?
21) Dave Littlefield, Pittsburgh Pirates - Jason Bay is probably a top five outfielder in the NL and is signed through 2009, making roughly 5 million a year. Gary Matthews Jr. is MAYBE a top 30 outfielder in the AL and will be making 10 million a year through 2011 when he'll turn 36.
22) Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay Devil Rays - See 20
23) Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals
24) Jim Hendry, Chicago Cubs - Eight years is too long for anyone, let alone for a career .325 on base left fielder at 30 years old. ESPN tells me $291.5 million dollars of committed contracts were signed this year for the Cubs. Good god.
25) Wayne Krivsky, Cincinnatti Reds - Anyone who likes Juan Castro as much as this fucktard deserves to be one of the worst thought of GMs in the game.
26) Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles -
27) Bill Stoneman, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Steve Finley, Orlando Cabrera, Gary Matthews Jr, an apparent refusal to play position prospects....there aren't many other things to make a GM bad.
28) Jim Bowden, Washington Nationals - Haha...Bowden.
29) Bill Bavasi, Seattle Mariners - Not only does this guy fucking suck at being intelligent, he's one odd looking guy, too. Huge, bald, with that 30-something chin goatee, a tool across the board. First Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson (the latter of which wasn't so bad0, then Carl Everett....then the recent trade for Jose Vidro, and the glaringly apparently lack of any player development. Two defense-first middle infielders in Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez, "toolsy" outfielders like Adam Jones and Jeremy Reed, and a bunch of horrible, horrible pitchers like Joel Piniero, Ryan Franklin, and Gil Meche. Were it not for the Japanese market and potential pitching savior in Felix Hernandez, this team might rate as the franchise in the worst position now and for the future.
30) Brian Sabean, San Francisco Giants - The man responsible for 755 to inevitably be broken. I honestly believe that had the Giants not signed Barry Bonds this year, no major league team would've signed him. At the time, there was really no fit where he was seen as possibly fitting in. Besides San Francisco, of course. Sabean is also responsible for trading Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano to the Twins for a .320 on base catcher with no pop. He also resigned Pedro Feliz to a 5 million dollar deal for '07. And traded for Steve Finley. And signed Armando Benitez for two years.

Incredibly, these are the "Real-time rankings from across SportsNation" says ESPN. I guess I should give a SPOILERS warning here, if you're interested in how people "across SportsNation" think:

1) Billy Beane
2) John Schuerholz
3) Omar Minaya
4) Theo Epstein
5) Brian Cashman
6) Kenny Williams
7) Walt Jocketty
8) Dave Dombrowski
9) Terry Ryan
10) Mark Shapiro
11) Ned Colletti
12) Kevin Towers
13) Pat Gillick
14) Bill Stoneman
15) J.P. Ricciarddi
16) Brian Sabean
17) Larry Beinfest
18) Jim Hendry
19) Tim Purpura
20) Doug Melvin
21) Josh Byrnes
22) Jon Daniels
23) Wayne Krivsky
24) Dayton Moore
25) Jim Bowden
26) Bill Bavasi
27) Dan O'Dowd
28) Andrew Friedman
29) Mike Flanagan
30) Dave Littlefield

One and done for Rick the quick?

2006-12-09T06:45:00.001-06:00

One offseason after the White Sox splurged on starting pitcher extensions, and acquiring two of the bigger contracts in White Sox history (Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez), after the recent trade of Freddy Garcia, Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey is calling out the team as a bunch of cheap skates focused on cutting contracts as opposed to putting a playoff caliber team.

Until a few days ago, the Sox had the best starting rotation in baseball. Now they have a reduced-calorie staff and an immediate future that has gone from bright to partly cloudy in a matter of 48 hours.

One pitcher constitutes the White Sox as having the best rotation in the major leagues? Have you looked at many other "rotations" recently, Rick? The White Sox ranked 22nd in the majors with a .460 slugging average against, allowing the 6th most home runs at 200, bested only by the rotations of the Royals, Orioles, Reds, Cubs, and Phillies. They ranked 20th in k/9. But apparently Freddy made up for these shortcomings, and was on his way to leading the team back to postseason glory.

Garcia threw back-to-back one-hitters late last season

Rick, Rick, Rick, two games do not make for a season. What about when Freddy went 4 innings allowing 7 runs against the Indians in the second game of the season? Where was "Big Game" Freddy when the White Sox were in the middle of being swept out of New York? Well, he was giving up 6 runs. Or what about in July in August when he posted back to back 5.50+ ERA?

Mostly—and you will be shocked at this one—they were looking at money. They won't have to pay Garcia's $10 million for 2007 nor will they have to pay him in the future, when he could command a bigger salary as a free agent. Never mind that he won 17 games last season. The number with the commas and all the zeroes is the one the Sox care about most.

Again, Rick, journalists need to give facts to support their claims. Did you personally talk to Kenny Williams and his decision to trade Fredro being simply about money? Maybe he is trading Freddy Garcia because he got a 20 year old minor league pitcher in return who just struck out 166 batters in 154 innings pitched? Or maybe he has a 22 year old pitcher that has shown he's much more comfortable in a starting role and can be a strikeout pitcher (something the White Sox don't have past Vazquez), with the ability to dominate power offenses.

The thanks those people get is the re-signing of Scott Podsednik, who probably couldn't make the throw from shallow left field to home in five bounces.

Now I wasn't clamoring for the return of Scott Podsednik either, but wasn't this the same man that accomplished Chicago post-season history when he hit a walk off home run against Brad Lidge in the last World Series game this city has ever seen? Was he any less apart of the same World Series that Fred-man was? This is called a double-standard, Rickey, and it again reeks of poor journalism.

The rush to get 23-year-old Brandon McCarthy into the rotation borders on the bizarre. He has shown flashes of talent but just that—flashes. Oh, wait. It's not so bizarre. McCarthy comes cheap.

If you want to boil seasons down to two games, this trade should've happened a year before it actually did. September 5th, Brandon McCarthy started a make-up game called for rain in Boston. As a desperately needed start by a pitcher outside the 5-man rotation, McCarthy went 7 innings, striking out 7, and allowing 0 runs. This game following a 7.2 innings pitched start @Texas where he allowed 2 hits and struck out 2. It also shouldn't be scoffed at that McCarthy would finish the year making five more starts, all of which he allowed no more than three runs, and only one run in three of those five starts. But you are right on one thing, Rick; McCarthy does come cheap. So will his above-average performances throughout the 2007 season, while Freddy will continue to show the decline he has since his days in Seattle. Have you failed to recognize the success of, most notably, the A's, Indians, and Braves over the last five years? It's called integrating minor league talent into your system, using that money to fill holes you can't fill through the minor leagues. It's been going on for years, Rick. I can't imagine what you would've written had you been an Oakland journalist when Billy Beane traded Mulder and Hudson. How's Danny Haren doing in comparison to 1/3 of the "big three" Mark Mulder? While I'm not sure Gavin Floyd is anything close to Haren, Gonzalez sure could be.

The window on another championship was still open as of Wednesday, but it looks as though the Sox slammed it shut, right on your fingers, Sox fans.

And like some cheesy, freshman philosophy paper , Rick ends the article in dramatic fashion. Your season is over, White Sox fans. That's it. No reason to watch next year. Nevermind that the White Sox offense (which is also 1/3 of the game, Rick) were first in home runs, first in total bases, first in slugging percentage, first in ab/hr, and third in runs scored. But it's over, White Sox fans. Even though eight of the full-time position players are returning (assuming Crede does get traded), the White Sox are not going to make the playoffs because they traded World Series champion, Freddy Garcia.

It should also be noted that the White Sox spent $6.45 million dollars on Mike MacDougal for the next three years. Talk about a fucking steal. If MacDougal can keep the radar guns high and finally stay healthy, that is one hell of a bargain. A former proven closer who throws consistently in the high 90s with great strikeout numbers signing a 6.54 million dollar deal when reliever contracts are also spinning out of control. Just take a look at these contracts and you'll understand:

Danys Baez, 3yrs/19mil from Baltimore
Chad Bradford, 3yrs/10.5mil from Baltimore
Justin Speier, 4yrs/18mil from Anaheim
Jamie Walker, 3yrs/12mil from Balitmore

MacDougal is younger than all of these players (besides Baez), has a better performance track record than all of these players, and is on a team that has much better starters than Baltimore or Anaheim, which lessens the work load put on the relievers. I can't stress how happy I am with a deal that has so little money connected for a long period of time. The White Sox 2007 bullpen, in order of game-time appearances could look something like this;

6th - Aardsma/Logan
7th - Thornton/Tracey
8th - Thornton/MacDougal
9th - Jenks

That would make for one of the more powerful bullpens in all the league, as 4 of the 6 pitchers throw over 95 consistently. What Ozzie has also shown throughout his tenure is his incredible handling of the bullpen (although things obviously didn't come out so well last year, even though all parts were on par for easy workloads), and if he can limit MacDougal's appearances and increase Thornton's, the White Sox should already be set in the pen.

(They still aren't making the World Series, though. You know, what with Freddy and all)

2007 Free Agent Class

2006-12-09T00:38:00.000-06:00

With most of the big names off the list by now (except Zito, maybe), everyone wants to know who is going to be a free agent after the 2007 season. In a discussion about the Freddy Garcia trade and Ted Lilly signing, it was brought up who is going to be a free agent in 2007 and was assumed that it "must look better than this years class." The list that follows is who I think the top ten free agents will be following the 2007 season. What this assumes is that these players do actually opt to go into free agency (there are a few who I think most definitely won't, but I'll get to them later) and that each player maintains their production going into this year (if Nathan blows his elbow out and needs surgery, obviously he'll be out of the list).

1) Carlos Zambrano, SP ChC, 26 years old - It appears that the Cubs procrastination in signing Zambrano will bite them in the ass. All that really needs to be said is that if GIl Meche, a pitcher who has never topped 186 innings in a year is getting 55 million dollars from the fucking Kansas City Royals, than Carlos Zambrano should be able to top A-Rod's contract in 2007. At 26 years old with little to no injury history, Zambrano should remain a top five starter in the National League and his contract will reflect it. I should mention that while writing this, I got to Nathan and my computer shut off, but I will tell you that the Yankees will probably appear in about everyone's little paragraph here. They have all the money in the world, and if contracts like this continue to be signed, the Yankees will be at the front of the line for everyone; they always have, and this kind of market suits them. That being said, Zambrano is obviously a target for the Yankees, but I could see the Red Sox making the biggest push for him. Even a year after (maybe?) signing Daisuke Matsuzaka, why not add another under 30 high-k pitcher to your roster? With the anticipated retirement of Curt Schilling, it's the perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to say goodbye to the old and welcome in the new. They have the cold bloodedness to not listen to the fans clamoring for Schilling to come back, and the smarts to know that 26 year old dominating pitchers don't come along every so often.

2) Andruw Jones, CF Atl, 30 years old - I'm begrudged to put him here simply because I've never been a huge fan. Since I started watching basebal I've always thought there were better CF's than Jones (Cameron, Beltran, Wells) and he lost his 30/30 threat pretty quick, as he hasn't had double digit SB totals in four years. It doesn't mean he's not an incredible player. He plays above-average defense and can hit 40+ home runs. He really fits into what the Phillies are looking for by missing out on Soriano, except they'll probably "get their money's worth" if he signs a similar contract, which they wouldn't have gotten if they signed Alfonso. Jones provides the Phillies with a power right handed bat in the middle of their lineup to compliment lefties Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. He gives them gold glove defense up the middle in a rather large center field, and there should be no league switch/pitcher adjustment (which I think is overrated, but does have some effect, moreso on pitchers. See Josh Beckett). After missing out on pretty much everyone this offseason, not adding too much payroll with Garcia, and adding to a very solid offensive foundation, I really think Jones could end up in Philadelphia.

The Yankees are also an obvious fit, with Damon's declining ability to play center anymore, and Abreu's contract ending (unless they extend him), they could easily shift Damon to right and put Jones in center. But by that time, although I don't think it'll ever happen, maybe Jeter will be in center, pleasing all the stat-heads.

3) Joe Nathan, CL Min, 32 years old - Now, bear with me on this one, because it assumes a lot. Mariano Rivera is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2007 season, amongst the rest of the players on this list. I'm not going to say that the Yankees have to win the World Series for Rivera to retire, because I'm not sure what kind of player Rivera is. He seems like the "old wise player" who could retire while he's at the peak of his game, relizing he doesn't need anymore money, finishing on top a la Jerome Bettis. He sure doesn't seem like the wife-oogling "desperately need to win a championship" Karl Malone-type. Should Rivera retire, I could see the Yankees going after Nathan with lots and lots of money, maybe in the 4yr/60mil range (which would top Ryan's deal in money, but for less years. Ryan was 30 going into his five year deal, Nathan will be 32 going into 2008). Again, this is all dependent on Rivera retiring, which is basically an unknown to me. Should Rivera retire he will undoubtedly sign with the Yankees. Perhaps the one player in the Major Leagues that you can currently say would never pitch for another team; Steinbrenner would never let it happen. If it's not the Yankees, and the Red Sox don't get a closer this year, they could go after Nathan as well. Or even the Twins, really. Nathan doesn't seem like that stupid of a guy, probably realizes the Twins great foundation of incredible young players and could sign for a "hometown discount."

4) Michael Young, SS Tex, 30 years old - Because of the abundance of outfielders who are all about the same age, Young rates ahead of Wells and Ichiro. Young took a step back in what everyone was considering after his great 2005 campaign with 132 RC and an OPS+ of 133. This year he was nearly identical to his 2004 season of 114 RC and a 106 OPS+. Those are still above average for a major league shortstop. His power should return to the 20+ mark because he'll stil only be 30 by the time he's a FA. Maybe it's wishful thinking but I'm going to say Young ends up with the White Sox. In 2007, the Sox will be able to take the offensive hit that the platoon of Uribe and Cintron provides them. They both play above-average defense but neither can do much with the bat. The downside of Young is that he provides pretty terrible defense, but the "aura" of Young definitely agrees with the White Sox philosophy of a tough ass guy who can hit, except in this case, Young can actually hit, as opposed to Scott Podsednik, Tadahito Iguchi, and Aaron Rowand. I also say this because the White Sox don't usually have the opportunity to sign big-name free agents in the Scott Boras-era; if you're a fan of the White Sox, you understand that Boras and Williams don't get along (see Joe Crede situation). Young's agent is Dan Lozano (who is that dude?), and the White Sox could go after Young hard with no forseeable shortstop prospect in the minor leagues.

5) Vernon Wells, CF Tor, 28 years old - The darling of trade talks during the winter meetings. Teams from the White Sox to the Rangers to the Phillies to the Dodgers (the Dodgers. Didn't they just sign offensive force Juan Pierre for five years?). Wells has basically said no thanks to the Blue Jays with rumors of him wanting to return home to Texas. If Texas goes out and signs Zito, they'll have another terrible contract to deal with, without making any playoff progress and wouldn't want Wells. Like Jones, I'm really just not a big fan of Wells. He plays a good center field, but has only had two overwhelming offensive seasons and will probably get a $100 million+ contract, which is something I'm not really sure he's worth. While they probably need to fill their pitching holes before they sign another bat, the Astros are still probably the best fit. Taveras has probably seen his last days as a regular for the Stros, and they will be making to look at big splash in the weak NL central after missing out on Pettitte and probably Roger Clemens as well. Phillies, Padres, Rockies, and maybe the Giants could also be considered potential teams, as they all have bad center fielders.

6) Adam Dunn, 1B/OF Cin, 27 years old - A bit surprising to me that Dunn is only 27. If he produces in a contract year like many have in the past, his value could skyrocket. Incredibly high on-base (relative to his batting average, of course) and the power to hit the ball literally out of any park in the majors. While he doesn't play good defense at any position, his "ability" to play both the outfield and first base is also a nice piece. Like I said, he's still only 27, so his athleticism shouldn't decline like most sluggers for another year or two. Regardless, I think teams will go after Dunn who need a first baseman and not a left fielder because he's simply shown he's terrible in the outfield but not as terrible at first. Unless Crede is traded to the Angels, they probably won't get the big bat they're looking for until next year, and Dunn fits in perfectly at DH. With the money Arte Moreno is always willing to spend and they're clamoring for a power hitting infielder for the past three years, Dunn could be that option.

7) Ichiro Suzuki, RF/CF Sea, 33 years old - I'm not going to say anything about Ichiro because I honestly think he means too much to the Mariners as an organization that there's no possible way ownership could save face if they let go of Ichiro. Because of that, and regardless of whether Bill Bavasi is still dumping money into the likes of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, Ichiro will sign an extension.

8) Carlos Guillen, SS Det, 32 years old - I've never really liked Guillen much, and I do think he has a chance to resign with the Tigers, but if he didn't he would be interesting with the Cubs, the other Chicago franchise with very little shortstop help in the minors and a manager that has managed Guillen in the past, I could see them making a run at him. Guillen hit 10 of his 19 HRs at Comerica last year, and if you can hit more HRs at home while playing in Detroit, you're likely to hit more if your home ballpark were anywhere else. The Blue Jays are another possibility with their musical chairs of shortstops in the past two years.

9) Corey Patterson, CF Bal, 27 years old - Say what you will about his past, but he's a left handed, power hitting, incredibly fast center fielder who plays well above average defense; if you can name me four tools for one play to possess that scouts, general managers, and managers drool over, try it. Patterson's skill set is the type that major league players stick around for. In his career he's stolen bases at an 80% clip going 45/54 last year. If the man could just produce a .335 on base the rest of his career, he could be an incredibly productive lower of the order hitter providing incredible defense. I honestly believe that any sort of decent year next year with the Orioles could make him a very rich man. He's still relatively young and has incredible talent.

X) Michael Barrett, C ChC, 31 years old - People apparently aren't so sure he can catch anymore, or at least provide league average defense at catcher, which may facilitate a move to a corner outfield spot or to first base. Neither of those are going to happen on the Cubs, so he'll be at catcher for another year. One of the better offensive catchers in the league the past few years, Barrett has shown to be pretty consistent, and probably would've hit 20 HRs had he not fouled a Matt Cain pitch off his balls. Should Barrett be signed to a team that is going to use him as a first baseman or outfielder, his value drops sufficiently and someone such as Jermaine Dye or Bobby Abreu would be slotted in at #10, but I don't see that for another few years. Basically everyone is looking for a power hitting catcher like Barret, but he would probably command more money than most teams are willing to commit to a catcher. What makes the '07 class very strange is that catchers may be the last thing in demand; 21 catchers, whether on the 25 or 40-man roster will become free agents after 2007. Barrett, in my opinion, leads the class with others such as Posada, Rodriguez, Kendall, Lo Duca, and Valentin the only other reasonable full-time catchers. He's also been mentioned as a possible trade candidate if the Cubs are willing to play box face Henry Blanco the whole year.

There are a number of players that I didn't put on the list because of their relationship with their current team or because I'm not sure they're going to come back. Age is also a factor for me, but probably not for GMs. The fact that Jason Schmidt will be 34 didn't seem to phase the Dodgers, and it might not phase the potential teams for Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, Jason Isringhausen or Jeff Kent. The other thing is teams that have a "different" relationship with specific players, i.e. John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Tom Glavine, and Trevor Hoffman. It truly is a changing of the guard as many of these players were some of the most dominant during the last ten years. Smoltz doesn't look like he's showing much decline, amazingly. At 39, the man threw 232 innings last year striking out 211. That is simply amazing, and perhaps it's Smoltz, then seen as the "worst" of the big three between Maddux, Glavine and himself who has aged most gracefully. He could retire, but if he doesn't, I really think he'd stay with the Braves. 19 seasons is a long, long time to be a major leaguer, to top it off at 20 years the way he's still producing could lock him up as a Hall of Famer. Rivera, as said before, will never pitch for anyone but Steinbrenner. I think he'll leave the team on mutual terms and retire as the greatest closer in the history of the game. Schilling has said a number of times that he is going to retire when his contract runs up with the Red Sox. Wakefield, too, is nearing the end. I think Glavine will retire after next year where he is almost assured his 300th win playing for a World Series contender. And Hoffman, much like Smoltz, seems to have more left in the tank. If he proves it again like he did last year, I think he'd most likely end up in a Padres uniform.

I'd be happy as a pig in shit if the White Sox could land Michael Young. Your praise for a player all of a sudden changes when there's a possibility of him coming to your hometown team. Young could feasibly take over for Iguchi, as the #2 hole and as the second baseman. Don't forget that Young played second while he and A-Rod were together in Texas, and it would make a lot of sense for the White Sox to target Young as a second baseman, while signing a lower-tier, glove-first shortstop. I heard some talk-radio gossip of the White Sox becoming "cheap" again and "trying to get rid of poor contracts." I believe the latter is true, but the White Sox are still a major market team, and that doesn't change over-night, especially after you just took on the contracts of Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez. The White Sox will spend money, and I believe Kenny Williams will spend it relatively wisely.

MAAAACK MAAGWUIAHH

2006-12-02T17:38:00.000-06:00

I’m sitting in a Laundromat called the Mudroom as I write this in word, trying to access the supposed wireless the Mudroom provides. Unfortunately, I’ve been without my copy of the 2007 Bill James Handbook for the last two days, and because I don’t have the internet to access all the raw numbers I provide my readers with I will do a bit of baseball social commentary.

Nearly two years ago, when the White Sox were beginning an improbable run to the World Series, Major League Baseball implemented its first steroid testing policy following a nationally televised witch-hunt on the players union. Senators put on their best faces and told us they were doing it “for the kids.” Mark McGwire told them he was there to change the future, not discuss the past. Frank Thomas was “there” to show that he has perhaps been the most honest superstar of his era, putting up numbers that will be perhaps the only piece of truth from an otherwise tainted era. Curt Schilling opened his mouth, as he does so often. Sammy Sosa said he couldn’t speak English.

Everyone remembers McGwire’s speech and the incredibly awkward nature of his attitude. It was well regarded that McGwire was going to get the brunt of media criticism, and, in turn, public criticism. Well, now comes the time where the media and the public really express that criticism.

In the following year Mark McGwire will be one of the many candidates up for Hall of Fame election. All beef frank with you, I wouldn’t vote for McGwire if I had a vote. But I also didn’t watch much baseball in 1998. I was too busy listening to the Smashing Pumpkins. McGwire certainly has the numbers to be a Hall of Famer; 500+ HRs, a ton of walks, and he played on winning teams. While those shouldn’t always be the criteria for what a Hall of Famer is, McGwire is definitely on par with what the hall generally deems worthy of election. The one thing that many talking heads a la Steve Phillips, Buster Olney, and the rest of the major sports media world will point to is McGwire’s low batting average throughout his career (.263). While I do believe that the “world” is changing and that people in the media (and public) do recognize OBP as a more valuable stat in projecting the worth of a player, those same people also still focus far too much on a .300 batting average.

My problem with McGwire isn’t the fact that he didn’t have a .300 average, but because as a player who is (also) generally considered to be one of the two who “brought back baseball” in 1998 with the great home run battle; he will also go down as one of the worst public figures for the sport as well. There are a number of players who have given black eyes to the sport, and they all stand out; King Kelly, Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, the 1908 White Sox, Albert Belle, Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett’s penchant for spitting (I’m sure this says a lot about my knowledge of baseball from, say, 1920 to 1960). But McGwire’s is different. It comes from an era that’s just starting to be uncovered. When Ty Cobb killed the bellboy in Cleveland, or when Pete Rose admitted he gambled on baseball, more so for the latter (although you could argue racism for the former) it uncovered gambling in baseball, which potentially ran very deep. The same goes for steroids in the late 90s and, sadly for McGwire, he’s going to be the culprit.

Things heal with time. Living in Chicago, I would imagine many Cubs fans who were irate about Sam Sosa leaving on the last day of the 2005 season have forgotten about it and would think of him as one of the greatest Cubs of all time (I would say Sosa’s “can’t speak Engrish” debacle rates 2nd on the list of guys who now look like idiots and probably won’t get voted into the hall of fame. I’m sure that fact is still present in most Cubs fans minds, and they wouldn’t think of him as a Cub great). McGwire just happens to be the first player from a steroid dominated era that is up for election. Do I think he’ll get in? I don’t think he has a chance now or in the future. His presentation of the game and of himself on that day probably ruined all chances for his hall of fame election. And if Joe Jackson, who many think was forced into throwing the World Series, still can’t get into the Hall of Fame, I highly doubt McGwire will get that chance either.

2007 Relievers

2006-12-01T23:02:00.000-06:00

As many of you know, in standard 5x5 Roto leagues, I'm a huge proponent of stacking dominant relievers. Just a look at my team last year and you'll notice a populat cast of characters appearing throughout the year; Joel Zumaya, Scot Shields Pat Neshek, Justin Duchscherer, Aaron Heilman, et al. Not one of these guys is a closer. Many may profile to become a closer, or have closer "stuff," not one of them led their teams in saves last year. But a dominant reliever is a dominant reliever; they help in all other categories, as well. While there's a select few that can do what some have done in the past; B.J. Ryan the year before he became a closer had 83ip, 122k. Much the same for Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez. All of these players helped their teams with their incredible numbers, but can be ignored throughout the year simply because, at a point in time, they didn't get saves.

NL
1) Billy Wagner, NYM
2) Trevor Hoffman, SD - Looking over the NL list of relievers, it's really not all that special. You have a huge age drop off (although I don't see much of an issue with Hoffman) and injury problems.
3) Tom Gordon, Phi
4) Mike Gonzalez, Pit
5) Chad Cordero, Was
6) Takashi Saito, LAD - Could be moved up a bit, but if Gagne stays with the Dodgers and can maintain his ability and more importantly his health, he could take back the closer role by mid-season.
7) Brian Fuentes, Col
8) Jason Isringhausen, StL
9) Francisco Cordero, Mil - I don't think Turnbow has a shot.
10) Jose Valverde, Ari
11) Jonathan Broxton, LAD - Another reason I don't see Saito being as much of a fantasy player as he was last year. Broxton has shown he can pitch in the majors, which gives the Dodgers potential trade bait in Saito.
12) Eric Gage, LAD - His numbers are seriously just too good - historically too good - to be ignored, healthy or not. Don't target him as the anchor of a team, and his value will be much higher.
13) Joe Borowski, ?
14) Ryan Dempster, ChC
15) Bob Wickman, Atl

AL

1) Joe Nathan, Min - The best and probably only closer I'd consider a keeper.
2) Mariano Rivera, NYY
3) Francisco Rodriguez, Ana
4) B.J. Ryan, Tor - I'd have him higher if there wasn't that 20k drop off in his strike outs. Still pretty automatic, though.
5) Bobby Jenks, Chw
6) Huston Street, Oak
7) Joel Zumaya, Det - Not only is the NL boring, all the dominant relief talent is in the AL. The first seven players on this list could probably be the #1 relief choice for any team.
8) Akinori Otsuka, Tex
9) Chris Ray, Bal
10) J.J. Putz, Sea
11) Todd Jones, Det
12) Fernando Cabrera, Cle
13) Scot Shields, Ana
14) Seth McClung, TB
15) Craig Hansen, Bos - I have no fucking idea who is going to come out of the Boston bullpen as the closer. I wouldn't put my money on Foulke, but that's about all I can say.

MLB
1) Joe Nathan, Min
2) Billy Wagner, NYM
3) Mariano Rivera, NYY
4) Francisco Rodriguez, Ana
5) B.J. Ryan, Tor
6) Bobby Jenks, ChW
7) Huston Street, Oak
8) Trevor Hoffman, SD
9) Joel Zumaya, Det - The guy will probably get 100 strikeouts in a relief role. I don't care if he's not getting saves; 100 strikeouts from a reliever is incredible.
10) Tom Gordon, Phi
11) Mike Gonzalez, Pit
12) Chad Cordero, Was - He's topped 73 innings the past three years and is still only 25. An injury might be coming.
13) Akinori Otsuka, Tex
14) Chris Ray, Bal
15) Takashi Saito, LAD
16) Brian Fuentes, Col
17) Francisco Cordero, Mil
18) J.J. Putz, Sea
19) Jonathan Broxton, LAD
20) Jose Valverde, Ari

Outfielder Rankings

2006-11-28T19:58:00.000-06:00

I totally forgot I had these posts to do, and because I'm lacking in ideas and inspiration to update this thing. I'll keep doing the "postseason" rankings. Outfielders are next, and obviously, I have expanded the size of the list to deal with mas players.

AL
1) Manny Ramirez, Bos - Despire whether or not I'd trade him for Matt Cain(IRL, BTW), Manny is still a top five hitter in the AL.
2) Carl Crawford, TB - I'm still not much of a believer, but he runs at an incredible clip, making him one of the few reliable players that's allowed to steal at will. While I'm not sure I'd personally take him in the first round, he's a definite 2nd round pick.
3) Grady Sizemore, Cle - I originally had Carlos Lee here, but since he's not in the AL and I was going to move Grady up regardless I took him out. Sizemore is probably a top 10 pick if he improves on what he did last year.
4) Vladimir Guerrero, Ana
5) Ichiro Suzuki, Sea
6) Gary Sheffield, Det
7) Vernon Wells, Tor
8) Nick Markakis, Bal
9) Jermaine Dye, ChW - I originally had Dye at 16, and call it blind faith, but I really think he's good. He won't come close to what he did last year, but that was so out of the blue and totally unexpected that I really have no idea what he'll do. If he stays healthy I really think he could be a good 2nd outfielder for a team.
10) Hideki Matsui, NYY
11) Johnny Damon, NYY
12) Rocco Baldelli, TB
13) Bobby Abreu, NYY
14) Delmon Young, TB - He really needs to improve on that patience before I can consider him anything. You can't survive in the majors with a 1/5 bb/k. While I think he's a better hitter than Francoeur, major league pitchers will figure him out.
15) Raul Ibanez, Sea
16) Chone Figgins, Ana - Probably better than 16th because he actually does run, and if he goes to a team with an offense like the White Sox he could top 120 runs, but I just don't target speed in the draft which is why he falls.
17) Nick Swisher, Oak
18) Michael Cuddyer, Min
19) Jason Kubel, Min - If only because he was great in the minors.
20) Ryan Sweeney, Chw - Because I had to take out Carlos Lee and can't think of another outfielder right now. How about Craig Monroe? He's got that big ol' swing.

NL
1) Carlos Beltran, NYM
2) Lance Berkman, Hou
3) Alfonso Soriano, ChC - The newest addition to the Chicago Cubs. Don't expect anything besides a slight drop-off in his numbers. Piniella will let him run when he wants, and because Ronny Cedeno is terrible and Izturis is walking glass, DeRosa might be moved to short and Soriano could, and I stress it for a reason, see time at second. Consider it highly unlikely. Still a great talent, he just doesn't have the skill set I prefer to see in a player for me to consider him great.
4) Jason Bay - The complete opposite of Soriano; patient. Yet, Bay failed to perform at the levels set by everyone going into last year. The next Bobby Abreu everyone said. I think he'll have a great year next year, he just might not possess the speed he showed in 2005.
5) Matt Holliday, Col
6) Carlos Lee, Hou - Those lame ass bleachers in right field might be frieldly to pull-hitting Lee, but as a friend pointed out, he's never posted a .900 OPS in his career, and if he couldn't in Texas, he probably won't in Houston.
7) Andruw Jones, Atl
8) Adam Dunn, Cin
9) J.D. Drew, ?
10) Andre Ethier, LAD
11) Chris Young, Ari - I'm nearly at tears that I'm not writing with Young as the projected CF for the 2007 White Sox, but such is the life of a Ken Williams-run team. Chris Young could be the lead-off hitter for the Diamondbacks next year, with his tremendous speed (100/120, 83% the last 3 years) and because he can draw a walk. Young had 101 RC in 2005 with 26 HRs and 70 BBs. The downside is that he strikes out a hell of a lot, which public opinion frowns upon....unless you're Alfonso Soriano.
12) Jeremy Hermida, Fla - He's got too incredible a track record to not be an amazing major league player. If he doesn't turn into one, it'll be a huge disappointment and what he is to statistical projections and talent evalutation, what Billy Beane is to "classic baseball scouting." I still think Hermida is going to be an incredible outfielder someday.
13) Pat Burrell, Phi - Bad contracts, anyone?
14) Ken Griffey, Jr - I think I'm kidding. These lists are like two months old.
15) Jim Edmonds, StL - Everyone tells me this guy is still productive, but I just don't see it. You can't play like Aaron Rowand (which I'm not suggesting is a good idea) at 36 years old and expect to stay on the field.
16) Mike Cameron, SD
17) Lastings Milledge
18) Brad Hawpe, Col - Admittedly, we could swap Hawpe and Griffey and it'd look just right. I think Hawpe is good, and his patience suggests he's much better than I give him credit for.
19) Carlos Quentin, Ari
20) Ryan Freel, Cin

MLB
1) Carlos Beltran, NYM
2) Lance Berkman, Hou
3) Alfonso Soriano, ChC
4) Grady Sizemore, Cle
5) Manny Ramirez, Bos
6) Carl Crawford, TB
7) Jason Bay, Pit
8) Vladimir Guerrero, Ana
9) Matt Holliday, Col
10) Carlos Lee, Hou
11) Andruw Jones, Atl
12) Ichiro Suziki, Sea
13) Gary Sheffield, Det
14) Adam Dunn, Cin
15) Vernon Wells, Tor
16) Jermaine Dye, ChW
17) Nick Markakis, Bal
18) Hideki Matsui, NYY
19) J.D. Drew, ?
20) Johnny Peralta, Cle
21) Andre Ethier, LAD
22) Jeremy Hermida, Fla
23) Bobby Abreu, NYY
24) Chris Young, Ari
25) Delmon Young, TB
26) Raul Ibanez, Sea
27) Chone Figgins, Ana
28) Nick Swisher, Oak
29) Michael Cuddyer, Min - He probably deserves to be way higher. SRY CUDDYER.
30) Carlos Quentin, Ari

OH, HEY.

2006-11-26T23:05:00.000-06:00

A formal apology is due for my neglect of this blog. My finals just ended a week ago, and I also started a new job this month, so I've been a bit swamped. I haven't totally fo'got about this shit. I'll write as ideas come to me, but that usually happens in class. A few general thoughts about contracts;

Alfonso Soriano to the Chicago Cubs for 8yrs/136mil - If the Cubs weren't a team with the potential for 100mil+ contract, this would rank with the all-time worsts. A few that immediately coming to mind; Todd Helton 9yr/141mil, Mike Hampton 8yr/121mil, Alex Rodriguez 10yr/252mil. But because the Cubs can take a financial blow, whether it be taking on a contract or paying out a retarded one of their own, this shouldn't hinder them too much to make deals in the future. Soriano at 39, likely getting 22mil+ (considering the deal is backloaded), won't stop them from competing like it would the A's or Indians. Given his career .325 OBP going to a team that finished dead last in OBP last year at .319, and the value the Cubs expect to get from him simply doesn't add up. He'll hit a few more home runs, but he really won't improve this team as much as his contract might suggest he should. He's not Carlos Beltran, he's not even Chase Utley, and he's getting paid like a offensive juggernaut.

Carlos Less to the Houston Astros for 6yrs/100mil - This isn't as bad as the Soriano deal, but it's still not pretty. The only thing that makes it more attractive is that it's for six years and not eight. Granted, Lee will probably be in terrible shape by the end of his deal and won't be able to hit like he did at 28. I can see him making good for the first three, maybe four years of the contract. Lets put it this way; Pujols signed a 100mil contract for seven years and is twice the player, offensively and defensively Lee is.

Aramis Ramirez to the Chicago Cubs for 5yrs/73mil - A good deal considering the market, given his age and ability. If he misses out on injuries for the next five years and ages relatively well into his mid 30s, the deal will be great for the Cubbies.

Juan Pierre to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 5yrs/44mil - He'll be 29, has a rag arm, and a career 73% SB success rate. Not to mention he's hit 12 HRs TOTAL in his career. HRs. As has been echoed throughout media halls, this may be the worst deal in the majors this year. I won't say in recent history because signing Russ Ortiz to ANY contract is a mistake in itself, but good lord, if the Dodgers want to throw money at people at least wait until there are guys valuable enough to spend it on.

Gary Matthews Jr to the Anaheim Angels for 5yrs/50mil - Oh good-fucking god, the Angels couldn't to anything else to make me hate this team more than I already do. First Darin Erstad for 4yrs/32mil, then Orlando Cabrera for 4yrs/40mil and Steve Finley for 2yrs, coupled with their stupidity and refusal to play prospects, or at the very least project for their arrival (i.e. Brandon Wood blocked by Cabrera and potentially and 3B they're so adamantly pursuing this offseason, Kotchman, for a time being, blocked by their pursuit of Paul Konerko. Obviously neither have happened [in one case, at least not yet] the thought that they're waste their time with it is beyond me). GMJ is just the icing on the cake. His peripherals were all out of wack last year, and the guy will be 32 at the start of the deal. If you're going to throw money around, do it with reason and intelligence not blind faith.

Moises Alou to the New York Mets for 1yr/8.5mil - Now that I look at it, 8.5mil is a lot of money for an oldy like Alou, but initally hearing it I was in love with the deal. 8.5 is next to nothing for the Mets, and filling a corner outfield position with a bat like Alou's is huge. Throughout his career he's raked, but in five of the last seven years, he's failed to top 136 games. If he can stay healthy for the Mets in 2007, he should prove to be an extremely valuable pick up.

There's a pretty large number of foolish contracts already this off-season; DeRosa for 3yrs/13mil, Catalonatto for 3yrs/13mil, Henry Blanco 2yrs/5.25mil. And the potentially foolish; Jason Schmidt for 5+yrs at 34 years old, Barry Zito for 70+mil, and paying Neifi Perez anything to provid negative win shares. It's gotten a little too nuts for my approval of anything, really, regardless of the players talent level. I just hope this forces the trade market to be a bit more interesting because where there's prospects involved it gets a lot more interesting.

(Progeria League)

2006-11-01T00:43:00.000-06:00

Those that came looking for Progeria League related material can now go here:

http://progerialeague.blogspot.com

for all the necessary information. I just didn't want this getting too crowded here.

Cornering the Market

2006-10-31T21:23:00.000-06:00

At times when I should be taking notes about Latin American history, I've been trying to figure out a way to analyze stolen bases in fantasy baseball. It's a really strange stat in that there aren't many "smart" basestealers. Even when they come in mass quantities, there's an extreme lack of success. As my dear friend Eric pointed out to me, when Rickey Henderson stole the 130 bases he did in 1982, it nearly helped his team as much as it hurt them; not the other way around. While you won't find anyone in your draft who can steal you 132 bases (which, with the way people perceive my draft strategy towards stolen bases, I'd have to take '82-Rickey first every year), you also won't find more than five major league players who I consider a sure shot to steal the bases to win the category.

It's clearly not a mathematical strategy, but from my knowledge about age, player progression, propensity to injury, as well as manager tendencies or team strategy; I believe it's not too hard to predict (+/-5-7) the number of steals you'll get from a player any given year. I broke steals into six categories; from the "about 70+ steals" guys to then "about 20+ steals" guys. I went through every team, and to the best of my ability, using where players will hit, and rookies who may have jobs after spring training, came up with a list. It's very rudimentary. And I'd hope to think that, while trying to be as objective as possible, I've been somewhat generous in some of my projections.

What I've found is that barely anyone can be counted on as integral part of your team to win steals. There are two elites in tier one, one of which could be debated; Jose Reyes(70+) and Juan Pierre(60+). I don't care what you think, which team you root for, or whether or not you hate the act of stealng, Juan Pierre is considered a lead-off hitter, will be a lead-off hitter for the rest of his career, and no matter what team he joins - he will run. While he can't be considered as an elite option for other categories (i.e. batting average, power), he can be counted on for steals. He's had virtually the same exact offensive statistics his entire career (HR, K/BB and BABIP) and he's only going to be 29. Like I said, I don't care what you say, if you value the stolen base and can tolerate the downside of the players that can steal (which is basically what you see with a lot of these examples), Juan Pierre is a valuable commodity. The other guy doesn't need to be mentioned. I think Reyes is literally one of the only dominant basestealer that does it at a consistent rate (79% last year, 80% and 90% the previous two). Not to mention he'll be 24 next year, and while he could potentially be moved out of the lead-off role, his speed is far to great to not let him run.

The next tier contains three players; Carl Crawford (50+), Chone Figgins(50+), and Hanley Ramirez(50+). I personally don't think Carl Crawford is ready to somehow morph into this 25/75 Eric Davis-like threat that Brandon Funston thinks he'll become, and while I think that maybe someday Crawford will turn into an elite player; he is already 25 and hasn't made the leaps and bounds that most elite players do at this age. Because of that, what you can expect from Crawford is more defined; something in the league of double digit home runs and 50+ stolen bases, which is exactly what I have Crawford pegged for next year. What incredible speed he has, though. The past two years he's had an 86% and 85% success rate stealing with a SB/CS of 46/8 and 58/9. Figgins on the other hand is much like Pierre but on a team that loves him and will probably play him regardless of his struggles, or in our case, his inability to actually play baseball. Figgins, much like Pierre and Crawford, was much the same player he's been in the past. The bonus with a player like Figgins is position versatility in that for 2007 he will again be available at 2B, 3B, and OF in all Yahoo! leagues. The last player is Hanley Ramirez, who stole at a 77% clip with 51 total SBs and a .353 OBP. As a rookie, on that team, makes it quite a feat. Hanley could be Jose Reyes with a lot more power in 10 years.

The next tier is the 30+, which is probably a lot more players than you think. But again, many of these players are one trick ponies and can't be counted on to a) actually play baseball well enough to merit a roster spot (i.e. Chris Duffy and Joey Gathright) or b) if their other counting statistics (HR, RBI) are even plentiful enough to offset what are much more "projectable" numbers(HR, RBI)? What also needs mentioning is that many of these players are drafted for other reasons than SBs; Ichiro, Jeter, Sizemore, and Soriano for their overall ability, Brian Roberts, Rollins, Weeks, Furcal, and Lugo because of their position (with many other reasons, I understand, but the "upside" of the stolen base is a much more attractive stat "Man, that guy is fast!" see: Curtis Granderson).

The last is the 20+ tier which is so loaded with guys that because of the nature of their "20+ ability" many may be periodically dropped throughout the year, and the rest are superstars that will no doubt be traded because of their power (Bay, Beltran, Wright, Utley). This is a list chock full of guys that are simply not attractive enough options to be considered something I would target because of their basestealing ability; Damon, Abreu, Rios, Ryan Sweeney, Granderson, Victorino (who I really like and, if assured a job and the lead-off role, could be considered a much better option), Hermia, Theriot, Corey Hart, Willy Taveras, and Lofton. I'm not turned on by having any of those guys long enough to be considered a cog in the machine that is my fantasy offense. The rest of this list is filled with literally top 10 prospects who everyone has boners for; Delmon Young, Zimmerman, Kinsler, and Chris Young (Ari.) and we all know rookies can seldom be counted on to live up to our lofty expectations.

The solution? Well, I don't really have one. My goal was to try and lay out the statistic in a different way. Without all the weird math that sabermetricians do that I wish I understood and without the old-timey "Rickey Henderson is the greatest lead-off hitter of all time," which he may very well be. But nobody stole a base like Rock Raines. Anyway, I'd treat the stolen base like catcher; there's not many options past the top three and once those are off the board, don't sweat it. But unlike catcher where you have to have one (and in some cases, two), you don't need to have stolen bases. Target the best player available at the time to fit your roster. I'll say it over and over again. If YOU consider the best player at that point to be the best, like Wexler did when he took Pierre before Matt Holliday, Jim Thome, and Scott Kazmir and then finished 6th place in stolen bases with the 2nd best SB option, then do it. I just don't think it can be cornered without having to suffer in other categories because your line-up is so stuffed with small middle infielders who run fast.

Have your Carl Crawford's and I'll take my Travis Hafner's.

WE GOT US SOME SHITTTTTT

2006-10-28T22:20:00.000-05:00

I don't have much to write on and I'm working on some posts that go a little bit more in depth such as a regular post called the "Player Profile" is in the works, as well as draft strategies + stat values. But because none of the are entirely finished, I'll write a deeper version of my player rankings with third baseman and shortstop.

First, third base:

NL
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla - Maybe the most dominating third baseman baseball has seen since Mike Schimdt with the potential to be better. I'm not sure Miguel survives at third his entire year because he is extremely large and would probably be more suitable to first. Regardless of whether it's first or third in fantasy, he may be the #2 pick in all of fantasy baseball next season.
2) David Wright, NYM - He's good. I don't really have anything to say.
3) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
4) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin - Injuries hurt him last year which mean he might be had later in drafts next year. Came on strong in the 2nd half and is probably a sure bet to be the starter in '07.
5) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
6) Garrett Atkins, Col - Ian Stewart won't be here for awhile, no matter how much people want him to be. Atkins will be the starter in Colorado for at least two years.
7) Scott Rolen, StL - I had him practically all of last year in one of my leagues and he didn't make the noticable effect he did the previous six years. I think he's still very good and has at least one great year left in him, but not much more.
8) Chipper Jones, Atl - Kerry Wood disease.
9) Chad Tracy, Ari
X) Morgan Ensberg, Hou - You might see guys say "Seems to be good every other year" which means he'll be great next year! Ensberg is a goof.

Overall there is a bit of a "changing of the guard" in the NL in that Encarnacion, Zimmerman, and Atkins take over for Rolen and Jones. Interesting and it may be one of the last few years that Rolen or Jones has much trade value.

AL
1) Alex Rodriguez, NYY(?)
2) Troy Glaus, Tor - A virtual cliff after Rodriguez. Some may say that Crede is at least "hitting his prime" and may have the potential to made this look like a more hearty list, I don't believe. Glaus is here becaue he'll have SS elig. for next year and that changes his value entirely.
3) Eric Chavez, Oak - Playing through that injury may prove to be harmless the following year, but I'm not sold. I'd be wary with Chavez.
4) Joe Crede, ChW - I can't buy it...I don't know how any stastically-drive White Sox fan could. You have a kid underproduce and underachieve (the former a result of being a poor hitter) click and what you get is Joe Crede's 2006. I may be wrong because even though he does walk, he doesn't really strike out a lot either, but a power hitter like him with such a long swing makes me wish his services were elsewhere...ahem...Yankees...
5) Hank Blalock, Tex - Remember this guy?
6) Andy Marte, Cle - I'm not buying Marte as being major league ready, but I'll put him up because if he is I'll look smarter.
7) Chone Figgins, Ana
8) Melvin Mora, Bal
9) Alex Gordon, KC - Perhaps Kansas City's only worthwhile fantasy piece. I don't think he's slate to start with Teahen there, but if he comes out gangbusters, then KC might think about putting him at first, where many think he'll end up anyway.
X) Mike Lowell, Bos

MLB
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla
2) Alex Rodriguez, NYY
3) David Wright, NYM
4) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
5) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin
6) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
7) Garrett Atkins, Col
8) Troy Glaus, Tor
9) Eric Chavez, Oak
10) Scott Rolen, StL
11) Joe Crede, ChW
12) Hank Blalock, Tex
13) Andy Marte, Cle
14) Chone Figgins, Ana
15) Alex Gordon, KC

Third base isn't as strong as it has been the past two years, at least in my opinion. Right now it seems very top heavy with three elite's in Cabrera, A-rod, and Wright, but past that there's a strange drop-off in that Aramis can't be considered elite, but still very good and then who knows. Maybe its just old, but still good.

Shawtstop:

NL
1) Jose Reyes, NYM - I personally think the k/bb from '06 is for real and that he'll be an incredible player for the next 10 years. He's only 23 years old and seems to be over his injury issues, the power that he's developing is incredible. Even if he fills out just a bit, he could be twice as good as everyone seems to think Carl Crawford is (and he is, but he's not the player Reyes is looking like).
2) Stephen Drew, Ari
3) Hanley Ramirez, Fla - Talk about an infusion of young shortstops. Much like the AL in the late 90s with Nomar, Cap'n'Jetes and A-rod, this lineup is nearly just as good. Throw in Tulowitzki and Hardy (if he can stay on the field) and you have 5 top notch shotstops all beginning their careers at the same time. Hanley is just as good of a pick as Drew is, and just as good of a keeper. I'd like to see another year because of how much scouts said he "was too raw," whatever being raw is, but if last year was any indication of what Hanley can do, he should have a great '07.
4) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
5) Rafael Furcal, LAD - Definitely still "young" but he may not be the player everyone thought he would become.
6) Troy Tulowitzki, Col - This is where the drop off comes from the 2nd tier to the 3rd tier. Tulowitzki might be good, but I highly doubt he'll be as good as Furcal next year and most certainly none of the others. I also tend to think the rest of the NL SS options are garbage.
7) Felipe Lopez, Was
8) J.J. Hardy, Mil
9) Edgar Renteria, Atl - He's seriously no good. A little story about how hyped this guy was; two years ago in 2004, my first year I started playing, I was watching some live experts draft on mlb.com in my dorm room. The 10th pick in the draft was held by some guy who was described as "never making mistakes" in his draft strategy and he selected none other than Renteria. That may have been a mistake. Renteria's been overhyped his whole career and I wouldn't pick him up unless it was absolutely necessary.
X) Khalil Green, SD - I once knew a girl who's mom liked the Padres and she told me "I think Khalil Greene is the best shortstop in baseball."

AL
1) Derek Jeter, NYY - Jeter won't nearly be as good as he was in '06; he'll already be 32 and the Yankees aren't going to get any better with the current FA market, which doesn't matter, really, but he just can't possibly reproduce his best season since 1999.
2) Miguel Tejada, Bal - I still hate him but he's still good.
3) Michael Young, Tex - Durability issues? I don't know. He's played in at least 156 games every year since 2002 and is already going to be 30 next year. There was a 10 HR drop in power, walks and Ks stayed the same, and he got basically the same amount of hits in roughly the same amount of PAs. I suspect he was just a little lucky last year and isn't breaking down just yet. He had 12 more doubles than he did last year and a few of those should turn into home runs next year. A top of the line shortstop, I just don't think he'll hit above .330 again.
4) Troy Glaus, Tor
5) Carlos Guillen, Det - I've underrated him for years, so I don't know. 5 years of single digit home run totals and a ton of nagging health issues, and then two great years one at 28 (expected) and the other at 30 (unexpected, if only because it was 2 career years instead of one, not because of the age). Regardless, I draft with caution because of his health problems and odd career trends and because I just don't think Detroit is going to be as good next year, assuming they don't make any huge moves.
6) Bobby Crosby, Oak - My MVP pick last year was kind of a bust. Very high upside, but the time away could obviously hurt and the mere fact that he's seemingly a huge injury risk means pouncing on him in the mid rounds as if he's a steal isn't too smart.
7) Jason Bartlett, Min
8) Jhonny Peralta, Cle - Talk about a fall from grace. My 4th round pick last year didn't merit the time I gave him on my roster for two months let alone four and a half. A darling of fantasy baseball managers last year averaging a 7th round pick, he's not only in the fantasy "dog-house" he's also in Manager Eric Wedge's dog-house. He's probably a big trading piece for the Indians next year but I don't think they should move him. He's bound to at least improve a little even if it isn't at the clip he produced at in 2005.
9) B.J. Upton, TB - I'm not a believer and neither is the Devil Rays front office, apparently.
X) Orlando Cabrera, Ana

MLB
1) Jose Reyes, NYM
2) Cap'n'Jetes, NYY
3) Miguel Tejada, Bal
4) Michael Young, Tex
5) Stephen Drew, Ari
6) Hanley Ramirez, Fla
7) Troy Glaus, Tor
8) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
9) Rafael Furcal, LAD
10) Carlos Guillen, Det
11) Troy Tulowitzki, Col
12) Bobby Crosby, Oak
13) Felipe Lopez, Was
14) Jhonny Peralta, Cle
15) B.J. Upton, TB

Overall a very strong position with an influx of youngsters for the future. The position will be as strong as ever for the next few years and finding a top-tier shortstop won't be as much of a struggle as it once was.

Sgt.Cradnial's

2006-10-28T17:36:00.000-05:00

Behind the law degree of Tony Larussa the Saint Louis Cardinals won the World Series last night. I guess congratulations are due? David "Not Jewish" Eckstein won the MVP because, much like Jermaine Dye, he had a high batting average, even though Scott Rolen was probably the Cardinals best hitter going 8-19 with five runs scored, three doubles and a home run.

It's cold and I want to take a shower, but i'll get to this before I do. Second base rankings for 2007:

NL
1) Chase Utley, Phi
2) Marcus Giles, Atl
3) Jeff Kent, LAD
4) Dan Uggla, Fla
5) Ryan Theriot, ChC - I was surprised by this kids bat. If Piniella can tolerate a youngster in the lineup, he'd better do it with Theriot. Could arguably be ranked as high as #2 simply because I don't like any of the other NL 2B besides Utley
6) Julio Lugo, FA
7) Jose Valentin, NYM
8) Jose Castillo, Pit
9) Brandon Phillips, Cin
X) Bill Hall, Mil - His enormous k/bb rate determines where he falls here. I just can never, ever trust a guy like this because he's far too prone to slumps

AL
1) Ian Kinsler, Tex - I'm high on him in that I think he's could be the best 2B in the AL in terms of fantasy production; HR, SB, and AVG. But there's also a slight possibility that Texas realizes Michael Young isn't that good of a SS and moves him to second, putting Kinsler at his original position. It would give Kinsler 2B/SS elig. for two more years with possible 15-20 HR/15-20SB seasons ahead of him makes him a very attractive piece.
2) Robinson Cano, NYY
3) Howie Kendrick, Ana - I'll have to see more power from him before I rank him any higher, even if he can hit.
4) Brian Roberts, Bal
5) Luis Castillo, Min
6) Tadahito Iguchi, ChW
7) Jorge Cantu, TB
8) Dustin Pedroia, Bos
9) Mark Ellis, Oak
X) Placido Polanco, Det

MLB
1) Chase Utley, Phi - It's undeniable how good Utley really is. Even if he were an outfielder or first baseman his value wouldn't diminish much. The fact that he's a second baseman makes him a legitimate first round pick.
2) Ian Kinsler, Tex
3) Robinson Cano, NYY
4) Marcus Giles, Atl
5) Jeff Kent, LAD
6) Ryan Theriot, ChC
7) Howie Kendrick, Ana
8) Brian Roberts, Bal
9) Dan Uggla, Fla - Sorry, I just really don't see him being able to build on last year. Guys who break the majors at 26 and do that don't come along very often, and there's a good reason for it.
10) Julio Lugo, FA - Cound change depending on where he ends up; i.e. staying in LA makes him almost worthless, just as it did last year. But going to a team like the Red Sox or White Sox rates him much higher.
11) Jorge Cantu, TB
12) Luis Castillo, Min
13) Bill Hall, Mil
14) Tadahito Iguchi, ChW
15) Jose Valentin, NYM

Verlander vs. Rogers

2006-10-27T17:13:00.000-05:00

Everyone is making a big fucking stink about how Jim Leyland isn't starting Kenny Rogers and instead starting Justin Verlander, who is on schedule to start, and who should be starting. Leyland's argument for starting Verlander is that he doesn't want to "start Kenny in this environment." This environment? What environment? The offensive blood red stands that is "Cardinal Nation?" Give me a break. First of all, it doesn't matter who's starting, the odds are in the Cardinals favor plain and simple. Take away the whole "environment" craze, and Verlander should be starting anyway. He can throw 99 mph with a mediocre curve. Kenny Rogers throws like 86 with his hand covered in shit; excuse while I take Verlander for now and for the rest of his career.

General thoughts on the World Series; I've taken a liking to the Cardinals for a number of reasons - one being that, for some reason, I've come to really like Chris Carpenter and watching the way he pitches. I don't know why. He's really good. Not great, but really good. He always has his mouth open but not in a bad Darin Erstad/John Lackey way. Instead it's like a "I can't stop chewing this gum with my mouth open" way. Adam Wainwright is another reason. Jason Isringhausen held a lot of weight as to why I hated this team; sure there's old guys like Edmonds, boring pitchers like Weaver, Marquis, the third base equivalent of the hapless Paul Konerko, Scott Rolen. But Isringhausen is bad. He was terrible this year, he's been declining for the past two, and to see a pitcher like Wainwright to step into that role a week before the season ends, pitching the way he is, is nice. I won't get all worked up about it, but it's nice.

The Tigers are finished. It'll be interesting to see what they do next year, specifically with Joel Zumaya. A starter throughout the minor leagues with fear of injury and an inability to repeat his mechanics, I wonder if they'll try him in the rotation. With Jones on for another year (who they could most definitely try to trade, although with his ties to the organization and Leyland's boner for him, I doubt it) and a starting rotation that can't be expected to do what it did this year, why not try to start Zumaya and get 185 innings out of him? I say no...but it's definitely a possibility. Start looking at next year, Tigers fans, because the Cardinals are one Chris Carpenter start away from being the 2006 World Series champions.

Here are the post-regular season first base rankings:

NL
1) Albert Pujols, StL
2) Ryan Howard, Phi
3) Lance Berkman, Hou
4) Derrek Lee, ChC
5) Prince Fielder, Mil - 2007's Ryan Howard?
6) Adam Dunn, Cin - He just can't make enough contact to be considered any higher, maybe not even enough for OPS leagues.
7) Carlos Delgado, NYM - Expect some serious decline in the next two years.
8) Nick Johnson, Was - I don't know if severely broken legs can hamper a career, but if they can, consider Nick the Stick dead.
9) Nomar Garciaparra, ?
X) Conor Jackson, Ari

AL
1) David Ortiz, Bos - Will have 1B elig. because, unlike the Indians, the Red Sox are smart enough to play their semi-capable DH in NL parks for interleague games.
2) Mark Teixeira, Tex
3) Justin Morneau, Min - I don't believe he can repeat '06. He's very good, but he was too good to keep it up.
4) Paul Konerko, ChW - You know exactly what you're getting; 35+/100+/.295
5) Jason Giambi, NYY
6) Nick Swisher, Oak - I'm not ready to call him the AL's Adam Dunn, but it's close.
7) Richie Sexson, Sea
8) Lyle Overbay, Tor
9) Victor Martinez, Cle
X) Howie Kendrick, Ana

MLB
1) Albert Pujols, StL
2) Ryan Howard, Phi
3) David Ortiz, Bos
4) Lance Berkman, Hou
5) Mark Teixeira, Tex
6) Justin Morneau, Min
7) Derrek Lee, ChC
8) Paul Konerko, ChW
9) Jason Giambi, NYY
10) Prince Fielder, Mil
11) Adam Dunn, Cin
12) Carlos Delgado, NYM
13) Nick Johnson, Was
14) Richie Sexson, Sea
15) Nick Swisher, Oak

YO, DIS BLOG IZ FREE

2006-10-27T00:03:00.000-05:00

So I started this blog years ago. I tried my damnedest to get into the blogging world; all of two posts (which have subsequently been deleted because of their ultimate lameness and my inability to analyze baseball players correctly). But this will be a real attempt because I've actually discovered something that I know quite well; Fantasy Baseball.

Not to gloat, but since 2004 I have finished in third place or better in six of the seven leagues I've ever been in (the 7th being fourth place in my first league ever), winning one of them and finishing 2nd three times. So I guess you could say that I might kind of know what I'm doing. This forum will be an attempt to share that knowledge with you, the lucky reader. The off-season is long in baseball, and I'm sure you'll need something to read; I will attempt to provide that to give you the tools to win (or in this case, just beat me to every move I make because the only people who read this are people who are in my league).

After every regular season ends (so my mind isn't clouded with playoff performances a la Carlos Beltran 2004) I rank my players by NL & AL and then across the majors. I make little notes on who I think is going to improve, decline, breakout, fall apart, etc. I don't think I'm going to give those out quite yet, but I'll make a couple comments on what I'm expecting from player A or player B.

So to start out, catcher rankings for 2006:

NL
1) Brian McCann, Atl - The kid can seriously rake. Without a doubt the 2nd best catcher in the game.
2) Michael Barrett, ChC
3) Russell Martin, LAD - Would you look at that talent drop off like a wedding ring down the drain?
4) Ronny Paulino, Pit
5) Mike Piazza, SD
6) Paul LoDuca, NYM
7) Mike Lieberthal, Phi
8) Yadier Molina, StL
9) ?
X) ?

AL
1) Joe Mauer, Min
2) Victor Martinez, Cle - Last year of elig at C (at least I would guess the Indians are smart enough to make it so).
3) Kenji Johjima, Sea - Could see a big improvement; much better than Iguchi, but no where near Ichiro or Hideki.
4) Jason Variktek, Bos
5) Jorge Posada, NYY - Suprisingly decent last year, I had him cooked.
6) Ramon Hernandez, Bal
7) Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis, Ana - Napoli was terrible down the stretch and the Angels always liked Mathis more anyway. It might merit to be watched over the winter + into spring training.
8) A.J. Pierzynski, ChW
9) Ivan Rodriguez, Det
X) Jason Kendall, Oak - I think Oakland (FA?). Ranked only because of his 2nd half; if you can consider getting ranked 10th a compliment

MLB
1) Joe Mauer, Min
2) Brian McCann, Atl
3) Victor Martinez, Cle
4) Michael Barrett, ChC
5) Kenji Johjima, Sea
6) Russell Martin, LAD
7) Jason Varitek, Bos
8) Jorge Posada, NYY
9) Ramon Hernandez, Bal
10) Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis, Ana
11) A.J. Pierzynski, ChW
12) Ronny Paulino, Pit
13) Paul Lo Duca, NYM
14) Ivan Rodriguez, Det
15) Mike Pizza, SD