10.28.2006

WE GOT US SOME SHITTTTTT

I don't have much to write on and I'm working on some posts that go a little bit more in depth such as a regular post called the "Player Profile" is in the works, as well as draft strategies + stat values. But because none of the are entirely finished, I'll write a deeper version of my player rankings with third baseman and shortstop.

First, third base:

NL
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla - Maybe the most dominating third baseman baseball has seen since Mike Schimdt with the potential to be better. I'm not sure Miguel survives at third his entire year because he is extremely large and would probably be more suitable to first. Regardless of whether it's first or third in fantasy, he may be the #2 pick in all of fantasy baseball next season.
2) David Wright, NYM - He's good. I don't really have anything to say.
3) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
4) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin - Injuries hurt him last year which mean he might be had later in drafts next year. Came on strong in the 2nd half and is probably a sure bet to be the starter in '07.
5) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
6) Garrett Atkins, Col - Ian Stewart won't be here for awhile, no matter how much people want him to be. Atkins will be the starter in Colorado for at least two years.
7) Scott Rolen, StL - I had him practically all of last year in one of my leagues and he didn't make the noticable effect he did the previous six years. I think he's still very good and has at least one great year left in him, but not much more.
8) Chipper Jones, Atl - Kerry Wood disease.
9) Chad Tracy, Ari
X) Morgan Ensberg, Hou - You might see guys say "Seems to be good every other year" which means he'll be great next year! Ensberg is a goof.

Overall there is a bit of a "changing of the guard" in the NL in that Encarnacion, Zimmerman, and Atkins take over for Rolen and Jones. Interesting and it may be one of the last few years that Rolen or Jones has much trade value.

AL
1) Alex Rodriguez, NYY(?)
2) Troy Glaus, Tor - A virtual cliff after Rodriguez. Some may say that Crede is at least "hitting his prime" and may have the potential to made this look like a more hearty list, I don't believe. Glaus is here becaue he'll have SS elig. for next year and that changes his value entirely.
3) Eric Chavez, Oak - Playing through that injury may prove to be harmless the following year, but I'm not sold. I'd be wary with Chavez.
4) Joe Crede, ChW - I can't buy it...I don't know how any stastically-drive White Sox fan could. You have a kid underproduce and underachieve (the former a result of being a poor hitter) click and what you get is Joe Crede's 2006. I may be wrong because even though he does walk, he doesn't really strike out a lot either, but a power hitter like him with such a long swing makes me wish his services were elsewhere...ahem...Yankees...
5) Hank Blalock, Tex - Remember this guy?
6) Andy Marte, Cle - I'm not buying Marte as being major league ready, but I'll put him up because if he is I'll look smarter.
7) Chone Figgins, Ana
8) Melvin Mora, Bal
9) Alex Gordon, KC - Perhaps Kansas City's only worthwhile fantasy piece. I don't think he's slate to start with Teahen there, but if he comes out gangbusters, then KC might think about putting him at first, where many think he'll end up anyway.
X) Mike Lowell, Bos

MLB
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla
2) Alex Rodriguez, NYY
3) David Wright, NYM
4) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
5) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin
6) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
7) Garrett Atkins, Col
8) Troy Glaus, Tor
9) Eric Chavez, Oak
10) Scott Rolen, StL
11) Joe Crede, ChW
12) Hank Blalock, Tex
13) Andy Marte, Cle
14) Chone Figgins, Ana
15) Alex Gordon, KC

Third base isn't as strong as it has been the past two years, at least in my opinion. Right now it seems very top heavy with three elite's in Cabrera, A-rod, and Wright, but past that there's a strange drop-off in that Aramis can't be considered elite, but still very good and then who knows. Maybe its just old, but still good.

Shawtstop:

NL
1) Jose Reyes, NYM - I personally think the k/bb from '06 is for real and that he'll be an incredible player for the next 10 years. He's only 23 years old and seems to be over his injury issues, the power that he's developing is incredible. Even if he fills out just a bit, he could be twice as good as everyone seems to think Carl Crawford is (and he is, but he's not the player Reyes is looking like).
2) Stephen Drew, Ari
3) Hanley Ramirez, Fla - Talk about an infusion of young shortstops. Much like the AL in the late 90s with Nomar, Cap'n'Jetes and A-rod, this lineup is nearly just as good. Throw in Tulowitzki and Hardy (if he can stay on the field) and you have 5 top notch shotstops all beginning their careers at the same time. Hanley is just as good of a pick as Drew is, and just as good of a keeper. I'd like to see another year because of how much scouts said he "was too raw," whatever being raw is, but if last year was any indication of what Hanley can do, he should have a great '07.
4) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
5) Rafael Furcal, LAD - Definitely still "young" but he may not be the player everyone thought he would become.
6) Troy Tulowitzki, Col - This is where the drop off comes from the 2nd tier to the 3rd tier. Tulowitzki might be good, but I highly doubt he'll be as good as Furcal next year and most certainly none of the others. I also tend to think the rest of the NL SS options are garbage.
7) Felipe Lopez, Was
8) J.J. Hardy, Mil
9) Edgar Renteria, Atl - He's seriously no good. A little story about how hyped this guy was; two years ago in 2004, my first year I started playing, I was watching some live experts draft on mlb.com in my dorm room. The 10th pick in the draft was held by some guy who was described as "never making mistakes" in his draft strategy and he selected none other than Renteria. That may have been a mistake. Renteria's been overhyped his whole career and I wouldn't pick him up unless it was absolutely necessary.
X) Khalil Green, SD - I once knew a girl who's mom liked the Padres and she told me "I think Khalil Greene is the best shortstop in baseball."

AL
1) Derek Jeter, NYY - Jeter won't nearly be as good as he was in '06; he'll already be 32 and the Yankees aren't going to get any better with the current FA market, which doesn't matter, really, but he just can't possibly reproduce his best season since 1999.
2) Miguel Tejada, Bal - I still hate him but he's still good.
3) Michael Young, Tex - Durability issues? I don't know. He's played in at least 156 games every year since 2002 and is already going to be 30 next year. There was a 10 HR drop in power, walks and Ks stayed the same, and he got basically the same amount of hits in roughly the same amount of PAs. I suspect he was just a little lucky last year and isn't breaking down just yet. He had 12 more doubles than he did last year and a few of those should turn into home runs next year. A top of the line shortstop, I just don't think he'll hit above .330 again.
4) Troy Glaus, Tor
5) Carlos Guillen, Det - I've underrated him for years, so I don't know. 5 years of single digit home run totals and a ton of nagging health issues, and then two great years one at 28 (expected) and the other at 30 (unexpected, if only because it was 2 career years instead of one, not because of the age). Regardless, I draft with caution because of his health problems and odd career trends and because I just don't think Detroit is going to be as good next year, assuming they don't make any huge moves.
6) Bobby Crosby, Oak - My MVP pick last year was kind of a bust. Very high upside, but the time away could obviously hurt and the mere fact that he's seemingly a huge injury risk means pouncing on him in the mid rounds as if he's a steal isn't too smart.
7) Jason Bartlett, Min
8) Jhonny Peralta, Cle - Talk about a fall from grace. My 4th round pick last year didn't merit the time I gave him on my roster for two months let alone four and a half. A darling of fantasy baseball managers last year averaging a 7th round pick, he's not only in the fantasy "dog-house" he's also in Manager Eric Wedge's dog-house. He's probably a big trading piece for the Indians next year but I don't think they should move him. He's bound to at least improve a little even if it isn't at the clip he produced at in 2005.
9) B.J. Upton, TB - I'm not a believer and neither is the Devil Rays front office, apparently.
X) Orlando Cabrera, Ana

MLB
1) Jose Reyes, NYM
2) Cap'n'Jetes, NYY
3) Miguel Tejada, Bal
4) Michael Young, Tex
5) Stephen Drew, Ari
6) Hanley Ramirez, Fla
7) Troy Glaus, Tor
8) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
9) Rafael Furcal, LAD
10) Carlos Guillen, Det
11) Troy Tulowitzki, Col
12) Bobby Crosby, Oak
13) Felipe Lopez, Was
14) Jhonny Peralta, Cle
15) B.J. Upton, TB

Overall a very strong position with an influx of youngsters for the future. The position will be as strong as ever for the next few years and finding a top-tier shortstop won't be as much of a struggle as it once was.

1 Comments:

At 10:18 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Do you make anything of Wright's huge second half dropoff? Or did he just cum all over his pants a bit too early?

 

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