Cornering the Market

At times when I should be taking notes about Latin American history, I've been trying to figure out a way to analyze stolen bases in fantasy baseball. It's a really strange stat in that there aren't many "smart" basestealers. Even when they come in mass quantities, there's an extreme lack of success. As my dear friend Eric pointed out to me, when Rickey Henderson stole the 130 bases he did in 1982, it nearly helped his team as much as it hurt them; not the other way around. While you won't find anyone in your draft who can steal you 132 bases (which, with the way people perceive my draft strategy towards stolen bases, I'd have to take '82-Rickey first every year), you also won't find more than five major league players who I consider a sure shot to steal the bases to win the category.

It's clearly not a mathematical strategy, but from my knowledge about age, player progression, propensity to injury, as well as manager tendencies or team strategy; I believe it's not too hard to predict (+/-5-7) the number of steals you'll get from a player any given year. I broke steals into six categories; from the "about 70+ steals" guys to then "about 20+ steals" guys. I went through every team, and to the best of my ability, using where players will hit, and rookies who may have jobs after spring training, came up with a list. It's very rudimentary. And I'd hope to think that, while trying to be as objective as possible, I've been somewhat generous in some of my projections.

What I've found is that barely anyone can be counted on as integral part of your team to win steals. There are two elites in tier one, one of which could be debated; Jose Reyes(70+) and Juan Pierre(60+). I don't care what you think, which team you root for, or whether or not you hate the act of stealng, Juan Pierre is considered a lead-off hitter, will be a lead-off hitter for the rest of his career, and no matter what team he joins - he will run. While he can't be considered as an elite option for other categories (i.e. batting average, power), he can be counted on for steals. He's had virtually the same exact offensive statistics his entire career (HR, K/BB and BABIP) and he's only going to be 29. Like I said, I don't care what you say, if you value the stolen base and can tolerate the downside of the players that can steal (which is basically what you see with a lot of these examples), Juan Pierre is a valuable commodity. The other guy doesn't need to be mentioned. I think Reyes is literally one of the only dominant basestealer that does it at a consistent rate (79% last year, 80% and 90% the previous two). Not to mention he'll be 24 next year, and while he could potentially be moved out of the lead-off role, his speed is far to great to not let him run.

The next tier contains three players; Carl Crawford (50+), Chone Figgins(50+), and Hanley Ramirez(50+). I personally don't think Carl Crawford is ready to somehow morph into this 25/75 Eric Davis-like threat that Brandon Funston thinks he'll become, and while I think that maybe someday Crawford will turn into an elite player; he is already 25 and hasn't made the leaps and bounds that most elite players do at this age. Because of that, what you can expect from Crawford is more defined; something in the league of double digit home runs and 50+ stolen bases, which is exactly what I have Crawford pegged for next year. What incredible speed he has, though. The past two years he's had an 86% and 85% success rate stealing with a SB/CS of 46/8 and 58/9. Figgins on the other hand is much like Pierre but on a team that loves him and will probably play him regardless of his struggles, or in our case, his inability to actually play baseball. Figgins, much like Pierre and Crawford, was much the same player he's been in the past. The bonus with a player like Figgins is position versatility in that for 2007 he will again be available at 2B, 3B, and OF in all Yahoo! leagues. The last player is Hanley Ramirez, who stole at a 77% clip with 51 total SBs and a .353 OBP. As a rookie, on that team, makes it quite a feat. Hanley could be Jose Reyes with a lot more power in 10 years.

The next tier is the 30+, which is probably a lot more players than you think. But again, many of these players are one trick ponies and can't be counted on to a) actually play baseball well enough to merit a roster spot (i.e. Chris Duffy and Joey Gathright) or b) if their other counting statistics (HR, RBI) are even plentiful enough to offset what are much more "projectable" numbers(HR, RBI)? What also needs mentioning is that many of these players are drafted for other reasons than SBs; Ichiro, Jeter, Sizemore, and Soriano for their overall ability, Brian Roberts, Rollins, Weeks, Furcal, and Lugo because of their position (with many other reasons, I understand, but the "upside" of the stolen base is a much more attractive stat "Man, that guy is fast!" see: Curtis Granderson).

The last is the 20+ tier which is so loaded with guys that because of the nature of their "20+ ability" many may be periodically dropped throughout the year, and the rest are superstars that will no doubt be traded because of their power (Bay, Beltran, Wright, Utley). This is a list chock full of guys that are simply not attractive enough options to be considered something I would target because of their basestealing ability; Damon, Abreu, Rios, Ryan Sweeney, Granderson, Victorino (who I really like and, if assured a job and the lead-off role, could be considered a much better option), Hermia, Theriot, Corey Hart, Willy Taveras, and Lofton. I'm not turned on by having any of those guys long enough to be considered a cog in the machine that is my fantasy offense. The rest of this list is filled with literally top 10 prospects who everyone has boners for; Delmon Young, Zimmerman, Kinsler, and Chris Young (Ari.) and we all know rookies can seldom be counted on to live up to our lofty expectations.

The solution? Well, I don't really have one. My goal was to try and lay out the statistic in a different way. Without all the weird math that sabermetricians do that I wish I understood and without the old-timey "Rickey Henderson is the greatest lead-off hitter of all time," which he may very well be. But nobody stole a base like Rock Raines. Anyway, I'd treat the stolen base like catcher; there's not many options past the top three and once those are off the board, don't sweat it. But unlike catcher where you have to have one (and in some cases, two), you don't need to have stolen bases. Target the best player available at the time to fit your roster. I'll say it over and over again. If YOU consider the best player at that point to be the best, like Wexler did when he took Pierre before Matt Holliday, Jim Thome, and Scott Kazmir and then finished 6th place in stolen bases with the 2nd best SB option, then do it. I just don't think it can be cornered without having to suffer in other categories because your line-up is so stuffed with small middle infielders who run fast.

Have your Carl Crawford's and I'll take my Travis Hafner's.