1.08.2007

RGIS

The last time I looked at this it was January 8th, apparently. I had a post I was inevitably unhappy with because it failed to live up to some standard. I don't know what that standard is. If you're looking for good writing, go to FireJoeMorgan.com (link to the right) and read the posts about Darin Estad being a gamer and Jim Hendry's expertise of on-base percentage. I don't read many blogs but FJM is one of the better ones I've come across.

The offseason is probably at it's slowest point but should be picking up once pitchers + catchers gets to a month away. I have some more things to write about, but I haven't really thought through it all. Sleepers and other odd lists will be coming. I hope Tiki Barber retires.

Here are the 2007 Starting Pitcher rankings. Pretty rough and old, but I'll make up for obvious mistakes. The MLB 2007 ranking will be on the fly as it's not made up:

EDIT: So because it was a lot of work to rank pitchers from league to league because there are so many and there's so much mediocrity coming with it, for the past few days I've tried to devise a better way to rank so many pitchers. And that's really the problem; there are just so many pitchers to select from you get overwhelmed with indecision from all the shit on the page in front of you. I ranked every pitcher I deem worthy with a letter grade; A to A-B to B to B-C and so on. I then ranked the players who fell into those group.

MLB:

1) Johan Santana, Min
2) Chris Carpenter, StL
3) Carlos Zambrano, ChC
4) Roy Oswalt, Hou - I don't like him here, but it seems everyone else does. I've never been a huge fan of his strikeout numbers and looking again, the only thing he's ever really had a large amount of success with is Ws, which aren't exactly predictable. A good pitcher, but if I had him on my team I'd want him to be my #2.
5) Roy Halladay, Tor - He's not Canadian.
6) Scott Kazmir, TB
7) Jake Peavy, SD - I'd probably put Oswalt here and Peavy at four if I were drafting a team. Peavy pitches in the best park, in the "worst" division, in the worst league.
8) Matt Cain, SF - I think I added and dropped him 12 times last year and alas he ends up at eight. I trust him a bit more than I did last year because he should cut down on his walks if only by 20. But the BAA and the HR totals look very good.
9) Cole Hamels, Phi - I had only heard things until I saw him pitch, and was under the impression that he topped at like 91. Then he threw 95. His strikeout numbers are Rich-Hill Minor League-esque.
10) John Smoltz, Atl - #10 at 40 years old? But does he honestly look like he's slowing down? The injury probability is sky high, I'm sure, but the man threw 232 innings at 39. Roger Clemens has thrown more than 220 innings once since 1999 and those 220 innings came in 2001 when he was 38 years old. Not to mention, Clemens wasn't coming off an incredible career shift from starter to closer and back to starter. Yes he is old, but Smoltz has a pretty incredible career line and might have one great year in him in the weak NL.
11) Ben Sheets, Mil - I am editing this post nearly a month after I started it and Sheets has moved from 25th to 11th. I've seen him ranked as high as 3rd, but generally around 6-10. I obviously would've that was ludicrous a month ago, but his numbers are just too good. His bb/9 and k/9 are both just so much better than so many other guys that he has to be at least here. I'm paranoid of injuries, especially to pitchers, and probably wouldn't even take Sheets if he came to me in the first five rounds. His innings has declined every subsequent year for three years, although most of '05 can be attributed to that weird ear infection thing.
12) John Lackey, Ana
13) Scott Olsen, Fla
14) Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bos - DICEEEE-K, RIGHT? RIGHT GUYS? I think I had him a maybe 20 a few weeks ago, where everyone else did. He's better than that and is still a youngin. Way better than the options past him. MOVE ON TO TIER THREE, PLZ.
15) Brandon Webb, Ari - Roy Halladay-lite.
16) Aaron Harang, Cin
17) Jeremy Bonderman, Det
18) Erik Bedard, Bal - I tink he's owsum.
19) Jason Schmidt, LAD
20) Danny Haren, Oak
21) Jered Weaver, Ana - Matt Cain : Me :: Jered Weaver : others. I understand this and you could flip the two if you see fit, but Weavers throws like 92 with control and Cain throws 97...and sometimes 98. I just have to think hitters will swing and miss at Cain's shit more often than Weaver's.
22) Felix Hernandez, Sea - Probably deserves to be a bit higher than 21. He's still extremely young at 21, but I think he'll get closer to his '05 and minor league numbers.
23) Curt Schilling, Bos
24) Rich Hill, ChC - For those who I haven't told yet; the 2007 Bill James Handbook pitcher projections have Rich Hill 2nd in the majors in strikeouts with 241, only five less than Johan's projected 246. I really think Hill will most likely reach that. He's already 27 and should now be peaking. By the end of 2007 he may be the Cubs best starter.
25)
26) Jon Papelbon, Bos - You're guess is as good as mine. The BJH seems to love him for next year with an ERA under 3.
27) Brett Myers, Phi
28) Adam Wainwright, StL
29) Chris Capuano, Mil
30) Greg Maddux, SD - I'm probably totally overrating Petco, but whatever. I've loved Maddux forever so I'll give the old man the benefit of the doubt.
31) Barry Zito, SF - From a great pitchers park to another great pitchers park but also from the AL to the NL. The NL is looking really weird this year.
32) Dontrelle Willis, Fla - DUI
33) Justin Verlander, Det - DED (arm)
34) Randy Johnson, Ari
35) Brad Penny, LAD
36) Mike Mussina, NYY
37) A.J. Burnett, Tor
38) Andy Pettitte, NYY
39) Anibal Sanchez, Fla
40) Rich Harden, Oak
41) C.C. Sabathia, Cle
42) Noah Lowry, SF
43) Ervin Santana, Ana
44) Chuck James, Atl
45) Josh Beckett, Bos
46) Jeff Francis, Col
47) Brandon McCarthy, Tex
48) Anthony Reyes, StL
49) Bronson Arroyo, Cin
50) Josh Johnson, Fla