With most of the big names off the list by now (except Zito, maybe), everyone wants to know who is going to be a free agent after the 2007 season. In a discussion about the Freddy Garcia trade and Ted Lilly signing, it was brought up who is going to be a free agent in 2007 and was assumed that it "must look better than this years class." The list that follows is who I think the top ten free agents will be following the 2007 season. What this assumes is that these players do actually opt to go into free agency (there are a few who I think most definitely won't, but I'll get to them later) and that each player maintains their production going into this year (if Nathan blows his elbow out and needs surgery, obviously he'll be out of the list).
1) Carlos Zambrano, SP ChC, 26 years old - It appears that the Cubs procrastination in signing Zambrano will bite them in the ass. All that really needs to be said is that if GIl Meche, a pitcher who has never topped 186 innings in a year is getting 55 million dollars from the fucking Kansas City Royals, than Carlos Zambrano should be able to top A-Rod's contract in 2007. At 26 years old with little to no injury history, Zambrano should remain a top five starter in the National League and his contract will reflect it. I should mention that while writing this, I got to Nathan and my computer shut off, but I will tell you that the Yankees will probably appear in about everyone's little paragraph here. They have all the money in the world, and if contracts like this continue to be signed, the Yankees will be at the front of the line for everyone; they always have, and this kind of market suits them. That being said, Zambrano is obviously a target for the Yankees, but I could see the Red Sox making the biggest push for him. Even a year after (maybe?) signing Daisuke Matsuzaka, why not add another under 30 high-k pitcher to your roster? With the anticipated retirement of Curt Schilling, it's the perfect opportunity for the Red Sox to say goodbye to the old and welcome in the new. They have the cold bloodedness to not listen to the fans clamoring for Schilling to come back, and the smarts to know that 26 year old dominating pitchers don't come along every so often.
2) Andruw Jones, CF Atl, 30 years old - I'm begrudged to put him here simply because I've never been a huge fan. Since I started watching basebal I've always thought there were better CF's than Jones (Cameron, Beltran, Wells) and he lost his 30/30 threat pretty quick, as he hasn't had double digit SB totals in four years. It doesn't mean he's not an incredible player. He plays above-average defense and can hit 40+ home runs. He really fits into what the Phillies are looking for by missing out on Soriano, except they'll probably "get their money's worth" if he signs a similar contract, which they wouldn't have gotten if they signed Alfonso. Jones provides the Phillies with a power right handed bat in the middle of their lineup to compliment lefties Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. He gives them gold glove defense up the middle in a rather large center field, and there should be no league switch/pitcher adjustment (which I think is overrated, but does have some effect, moreso on pitchers. See Josh Beckett). After missing out on pretty much everyone this offseason, not adding too much payroll with Garcia, and adding to a very solid offensive foundation, I really think Jones could end up in Philadelphia.
The Yankees are also an obvious fit, with Damon's declining ability to play center anymore, and Abreu's contract ending (unless they extend him), they could easily shift Damon to right and put Jones in center. But by that time, although I don't think it'll ever happen, maybe Jeter will be in center, pleasing all the stat-heads.
3) Joe Nathan, CL Min, 32 years old - Now, bear with me on this one, because it assumes a lot. Mariano Rivera is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2007 season, amongst the rest of the players on this list. I'm not going to say that the Yankees have to win the World Series for Rivera to retire, because I'm not sure what kind of player Rivera is. He seems like the "old wise player" who could retire while he's at the peak of his game, relizing he doesn't need anymore money, finishing on top a la Jerome Bettis. He sure doesn't seem like the wife-oogling "desperately need to win a championship" Karl Malone-type. Should Rivera retire, I could see the Yankees going after Nathan with lots and lots of money, maybe in the 4yr/60mil range (which would top Ryan's deal in money, but for less years. Ryan was 30 going into his five year deal, Nathan will be 32 going into 2008). Again, this is all dependent on Rivera retiring, which is basically an unknown to me. Should Rivera retire he will undoubtedly sign with the Yankees. Perhaps the one player in the Major Leagues that you can currently say would never pitch for another team; Steinbrenner would never let it happen. If it's not the Yankees, and the Red Sox don't get a closer this year, they could go after Nathan as well. Or even the Twins, really. Nathan doesn't seem like that stupid of a guy, probably realizes the Twins great foundation of incredible young players and could sign for a "hometown discount."
4) Michael Young, SS Tex, 30 years old - Because of the abundance of outfielders who are all about the same age, Young rates ahead of Wells and Ichiro. Young took a step back in what everyone was considering after his great 2005 campaign with 132 RC and an OPS+ of 133. This year he was nearly identical to his 2004 season of 114 RC and a 106 OPS+. Those are still above average for a major league shortstop. His power should return to the 20+ mark because he'll stil only be 30 by the time he's a FA. Maybe it's wishful thinking but I'm going to say Young ends up with the White Sox. In 2007, the Sox will be able to take the offensive hit that the platoon of Uribe and Cintron provides them. They both play above-average defense but neither can do much with the bat. The downside of Young is that he provides pretty terrible defense, but the "aura" of Young definitely agrees with the White Sox philosophy of a tough ass guy who can hit, except in this case, Young can
actually hit, as opposed to Scott Podsednik, Tadahito Iguchi, and Aaron Rowand. I also say this because the White Sox don't usually have the opportunity to sign big-name free agents in the Scott Boras-era; if you're a fan of the White Sox, you understand that Boras and Williams don't get along (see Joe Crede situation). Young's agent is Dan Lozano (who is that dude?), and the White Sox could go after Young hard with no forseeable shortstop prospect in the minor leagues.
5) Vernon Wells, CF Tor, 28 years old - The darling of trade talks during the winter meetings. Teams from the White Sox to the Rangers to the Phillies to the Dodgers (the Dodgers. Didn't they just sign offensive force Juan Pierre for five years?). Wells has basically said no thanks to the Blue Jays with rumors of him wanting to return home to Texas. If Texas goes out and signs Zito, they'll have another terrible contract to deal with, without making any playoff progress and wouldn't want Wells. Like Jones, I'm really just not a big fan of Wells. He plays a good center field, but has only had two overwhelming offensive seasons and will probably get a $100 million+ contract, which is something I'm not really sure he's worth. While they probably need to fill their pitching holes before they sign another bat, the Astros are still probably the best fit. Taveras has probably seen his last days as a regular for the Stros, and they will be making to look at big splash in the weak NL central after missing out on Pettitte and probably Roger Clemens as well. Phillies, Padres, Rockies, and maybe the Giants could also be considered potential teams, as they all have bad center fielders.
6) Adam Dunn, 1B/OF Cin, 27 years old - A bit surprising to me that Dunn is only 27. If he produces in a contract year like many have in the past, his value could skyrocket. Incredibly high on-base (relative to his batting average, of course) and the power to hit the ball literally out of any park in the majors. While he doesn't play good defense at any position, his "ability" to play both the outfield and first base is also a nice piece. Like I said, he's still only 27, so his athleticism shouldn't decline like most sluggers for another year or two. Regardless, I think teams will go after Dunn who need a first baseman and not a left fielder because he's simply shown he's terrible in the outfield but not as terrible at first. Unless Crede is traded to the Angels, they probably won't get the big bat they're looking for until next year, and Dunn fits in perfectly at DH. With the money Arte Moreno is always willing to spend and they're clamoring for a power hitting infielder for the past three years, Dunn could be that option.
7) Ichiro Suzuki, RF/CF Sea, 33 years old - I'm not going to say anything about Ichiro because I honestly think he means too much to the Mariners as an organization that there's no possible way ownership could save face if they let go of Ichiro. Because of that, and regardless of whether Bill Bavasi is still dumping money into the likes of Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre, Ichiro will sign an extension.
8) Carlos Guillen, SS Det, 32 years old - I've never really liked Guillen much, and I do think he has a chance to resign with the Tigers, but if he didn't he would be interesting with the Cubs, the other Chicago franchise with very little shortstop help in the minors and a manager that has managed Guillen in the past, I could see them making a run at him. Guillen hit 10 of his 19 HRs at Comerica last year, and if you can hit more HRs at home while playing in Detroit, you're likely to hit more if your home ballpark were anywhere else. The Blue Jays are another possibility with their musical chairs of shortstops in the past two years.
9) Corey Patterson, CF Bal, 27 years old - Say what you will about his past, but he's a left handed, power hitting, incredibly fast center fielder who plays well above average defense; if you can name me four tools for
one play to possess that scouts, general managers, and managers drool over, try it. Patterson's skill set is the type that major league players stick around for. In his career he's stolen bases at an 80% clip going 45/54 last year. If the man could just produce a .335 on base the rest of his career, he could be an incredibly productive lower of the order hitter providing incredible defense. I honestly believe that any sort of decent year next year with the Orioles could make him a very rich man. He's still relatively young and has incredible talent.
X) Michael Barrett, C ChC, 31 years old - People apparently aren't so sure he can catch anymore, or at least provide league average defense at catcher, which may facilitate a move to a corner outfield spot or to first base. Neither of those are going to happen on the Cubs, so he'll be at catcher for another year. One of the better offensive catchers in the league the past few years, Barrett has shown to be pretty consistent, and probably would've hit 20 HRs had he not fouled a Matt Cain pitch off his balls. Should Barrett be signed to a team that is going to use him as a first baseman or outfielder, his value drops sufficiently and someone such as Jermaine Dye or Bobby Abreu would be slotted in at #10, but I don't see that for another few years. Basically everyone is looking for a power hitting catcher like Barret, but he would probably command more money than most teams are willing to commit to a catcher. What makes the '07 class very strange is that catchers may be the last thing in demand; 21 catchers, whether on the 25 or 40-man roster will become free agents after 2007. Barrett, in my opinion, leads the class with others such as Posada, Rodriguez, Kendall, Lo Duca, and Valentin the only other reasonable full-time catchers. He's also been mentioned as a possible trade candidate if the Cubs are willing to play box face Henry Blanco the whole year.
There are a number of players that I didn't put on the list because of their relationship with their current team or because I'm not sure they're going to come back. Age is also a factor for me, but probably not for GMs. The fact that Jason Schmidt will be 34 didn't seem to phase the Dodgers, and it might not phase the potential teams for Jermaine Dye, Bobby Abreu, Jason Isringhausen or Jeff Kent. The other thing is teams that have a "different" relationship with specific players, i.e. John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Tom Glavine, and Trevor Hoffman. It truly is a changing of the guard as many of these players were some of the most dominant during the last ten years. Smoltz doesn't look like he's showing much decline, amazingly. At 39, the man threw 232 innings last year striking out 211. That is simply amazing, and perhaps it's Smoltz, then seen as the "worst" of the big three between Maddux, Glavine and himself who has aged most gracefully. He could retire, but if he doesn't, I really think he'd stay with the Braves. 19 seasons is a long, long time to be a major leaguer, to top it off at 20 years the way he's still producing could lock him up as a Hall of Famer. Rivera, as said before, will never pitch for anyone but Steinbrenner. I think he'll leave the team on mutual terms and retire as the greatest closer in the history of the game. Schilling has said a number of times that he is going to retire when his contract runs up with the Red Sox. Wakefield, too, is nearing the end. I think Glavine will retire after next year where he is almost assured his 300th win playing for a World Series contender. And Hoffman, much like Smoltz, seems to have more left in the tank. If he proves it again like he did last year, I think he'd most likely end up in a Padres uniform.
I'd be happy as a pig in shit if the White Sox could land Michael Young. Your praise for a player all of a sudden changes when there's a possibility of him coming to your hometown team. Young could feasibly take over for Iguchi, as the #2 hole and as the second baseman. Don't forget that Young played second while he and A-Rod were together in Texas, and it would make a lot of sense for the White Sox to target Young as a second baseman, while signing a lower-tier, glove-first shortstop. I heard some talk-radio gossip of the White Sox becoming "cheap" again and "trying to get rid of poor contracts." I believe the latter is true, but the White Sox are still a major market team, and that doesn't change over-night, especially after you just took on the contracts of Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez. The White Sox will spend money, and I believe Kenny Williams will spend it relatively wisely.
