Cornering the Market

At times when I should be taking notes about Latin American history, I've been trying to figure out a way to analyze stolen bases in fantasy baseball. It's a really strange stat in that there aren't many "smart" basestealers. Even when they come in mass quantities, there's an extreme lack of success. As my dear friend Eric pointed out to me, when Rickey Henderson stole the 130 bases he did in 1982, it nearly helped his team as much as it hurt them; not the other way around. While you won't find anyone in your draft who can steal you 132 bases (which, with the way people perceive my draft strategy towards stolen bases, I'd have to take '82-Rickey first every year), you also won't find more than five major league players who I consider a sure shot to steal the bases to win the category.

It's clearly not a mathematical strategy, but from my knowledge about age, player progression, propensity to injury, as well as manager tendencies or team strategy; I believe it's not too hard to predict (+/-5-7) the number of steals you'll get from a player any given year. I broke steals into six categories; from the "about 70+ steals" guys to then "about 20+ steals" guys. I went through every team, and to the best of my ability, using where players will hit, and rookies who may have jobs after spring training, came up with a list. It's very rudimentary. And I'd hope to think that, while trying to be as objective as possible, I've been somewhat generous in some of my projections.

What I've found is that barely anyone can be counted on as integral part of your team to win steals. There are two elites in tier one, one of which could be debated; Jose Reyes(70+) and Juan Pierre(60+). I don't care what you think, which team you root for, or whether or not you hate the act of stealng, Juan Pierre is considered a lead-off hitter, will be a lead-off hitter for the rest of his career, and no matter what team he joins - he will run. While he can't be considered as an elite option for other categories (i.e. batting average, power), he can be counted on for steals. He's had virtually the same exact offensive statistics his entire career (HR, K/BB and BABIP) and he's only going to be 29. Like I said, I don't care what you say, if you value the stolen base and can tolerate the downside of the players that can steal (which is basically what you see with a lot of these examples), Juan Pierre is a valuable commodity. The other guy doesn't need to be mentioned. I think Reyes is literally one of the only dominant basestealer that does it at a consistent rate (79% last year, 80% and 90% the previous two). Not to mention he'll be 24 next year, and while he could potentially be moved out of the lead-off role, his speed is far to great to not let him run.

The next tier contains three players; Carl Crawford (50+), Chone Figgins(50+), and Hanley Ramirez(50+). I personally don't think Carl Crawford is ready to somehow morph into this 25/75 Eric Davis-like threat that Brandon Funston thinks he'll become, and while I think that maybe someday Crawford will turn into an elite player; he is already 25 and hasn't made the leaps and bounds that most elite players do at this age. Because of that, what you can expect from Crawford is more defined; something in the league of double digit home runs and 50+ stolen bases, which is exactly what I have Crawford pegged for next year. What incredible speed he has, though. The past two years he's had an 86% and 85% success rate stealing with a SB/CS of 46/8 and 58/9. Figgins on the other hand is much like Pierre but on a team that loves him and will probably play him regardless of his struggles, or in our case, his inability to actually play baseball. Figgins, much like Pierre and Crawford, was much the same player he's been in the past. The bonus with a player like Figgins is position versatility in that for 2007 he will again be available at 2B, 3B, and OF in all Yahoo! leagues. The last player is Hanley Ramirez, who stole at a 77% clip with 51 total SBs and a .353 OBP. As a rookie, on that team, makes it quite a feat. Hanley could be Jose Reyes with a lot more power in 10 years.

The next tier is the 30+, which is probably a lot more players than you think. But again, many of these players are one trick ponies and can't be counted on to a) actually play baseball well enough to merit a roster spot (i.e. Chris Duffy and Joey Gathright) or b) if their other counting statistics (HR, RBI) are even plentiful enough to offset what are much more "projectable" numbers(HR, RBI)? What also needs mentioning is that many of these players are drafted for other reasons than SBs; Ichiro, Jeter, Sizemore, and Soriano for their overall ability, Brian Roberts, Rollins, Weeks, Furcal, and Lugo because of their position (with many other reasons, I understand, but the "upside" of the stolen base is a much more attractive stat "Man, that guy is fast!" see: Curtis Granderson).

The last is the 20+ tier which is so loaded with guys that because of the nature of their "20+ ability" many may be periodically dropped throughout the year, and the rest are superstars that will no doubt be traded because of their power (Bay, Beltran, Wright, Utley). This is a list chock full of guys that are simply not attractive enough options to be considered something I would target because of their basestealing ability; Damon, Abreu, Rios, Ryan Sweeney, Granderson, Victorino (who I really like and, if assured a job and the lead-off role, could be considered a much better option), Hermia, Theriot, Corey Hart, Willy Taveras, and Lofton. I'm not turned on by having any of those guys long enough to be considered a cog in the machine that is my fantasy offense. The rest of this list is filled with literally top 10 prospects who everyone has boners for; Delmon Young, Zimmerman, Kinsler, and Chris Young (Ari.) and we all know rookies can seldom be counted on to live up to our lofty expectations.

The solution? Well, I don't really have one. My goal was to try and lay out the statistic in a different way. Without all the weird math that sabermetricians do that I wish I understood and without the old-timey "Rickey Henderson is the greatest lead-off hitter of all time," which he may very well be. But nobody stole a base like Rock Raines. Anyway, I'd treat the stolen base like catcher; there's not many options past the top three and once those are off the board, don't sweat it. But unlike catcher where you have to have one (and in some cases, two), you don't need to have stolen bases. Target the best player available at the time to fit your roster. I'll say it over and over again. If YOU consider the best player at that point to be the best, like Wexler did when he took Pierre before Matt Holliday, Jim Thome, and Scott Kazmir and then finished 6th place in stolen bases with the 2nd best SB option, then do it. I just don't think it can be cornered without having to suffer in other categories because your line-up is so stuffed with small middle infielders who run fast.

Have your Carl Crawford's and I'll take my Travis Hafner's.

WE GOT US SOME SHITTTTTT

I don't have much to write on and I'm working on some posts that go a little bit more in depth such as a regular post called the "Player Profile" is in the works, as well as draft strategies + stat values. But because none of the are entirely finished, I'll write a deeper version of my player rankings with third baseman and shortstop.

First, third base:

NL
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla - Maybe the most dominating third baseman baseball has seen since Mike Schimdt with the potential to be better. I'm not sure Miguel survives at third his entire year because he is extremely large and would probably be more suitable to first. Regardless of whether it's first or third in fantasy, he may be the #2 pick in all of fantasy baseball next season.
2) David Wright, NYM - He's good. I don't really have anything to say.
3) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
4) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin - Injuries hurt him last year which mean he might be had later in drafts next year. Came on strong in the 2nd half and is probably a sure bet to be the starter in '07.
5) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
6) Garrett Atkins, Col - Ian Stewart won't be here for awhile, no matter how much people want him to be. Atkins will be the starter in Colorado for at least two years.
7) Scott Rolen, StL - I had him practically all of last year in one of my leagues and he didn't make the noticable effect he did the previous six years. I think he's still very good and has at least one great year left in him, but not much more.
8) Chipper Jones, Atl - Kerry Wood disease.
9) Chad Tracy, Ari
X) Morgan Ensberg, Hou - You might see guys say "Seems to be good every other year" which means he'll be great next year! Ensberg is a goof.

Overall there is a bit of a "changing of the guard" in the NL in that Encarnacion, Zimmerman, and Atkins take over for Rolen and Jones. Interesting and it may be one of the last few years that Rolen or Jones has much trade value.

AL
1) Alex Rodriguez, NYY(?)
2) Troy Glaus, Tor - A virtual cliff after Rodriguez. Some may say that Crede is at least "hitting his prime" and may have the potential to made this look like a more hearty list, I don't believe. Glaus is here becaue he'll have SS elig. for next year and that changes his value entirely.
3) Eric Chavez, Oak - Playing through that injury may prove to be harmless the following year, but I'm not sold. I'd be wary with Chavez.
4) Joe Crede, ChW - I can't buy it...I don't know how any stastically-drive White Sox fan could. You have a kid underproduce and underachieve (the former a result of being a poor hitter) click and what you get is Joe Crede's 2006. I may be wrong because even though he does walk, he doesn't really strike out a lot either, but a power hitter like him with such a long swing makes me wish his services were elsewhere...ahem...Yankees...
5) Hank Blalock, Tex - Remember this guy?
6) Andy Marte, Cle - I'm not buying Marte as being major league ready, but I'll put him up because if he is I'll look smarter.
7) Chone Figgins, Ana
8) Melvin Mora, Bal
9) Alex Gordon, KC - Perhaps Kansas City's only worthwhile fantasy piece. I don't think he's slate to start with Teahen there, but if he comes out gangbusters, then KC might think about putting him at first, where many think he'll end up anyway.
X) Mike Lowell, Bos

MLB
1) Miguel Cabrera, Fla
2) Alex Rodriguez, NYY
3) David Wright, NYM
4) Aramis Ramirez, ChC(?)
5) Edwin Encarnacion, Cin
6) Ryan Zimmerman, Was
7) Garrett Atkins, Col
8) Troy Glaus, Tor
9) Eric Chavez, Oak
10) Scott Rolen, StL
11) Joe Crede, ChW
12) Hank Blalock, Tex
13) Andy Marte, Cle
14) Chone Figgins, Ana
15) Alex Gordon, KC

Third base isn't as strong as it has been the past two years, at least in my opinion. Right now it seems very top heavy with three elite's in Cabrera, A-rod, and Wright, but past that there's a strange drop-off in that Aramis can't be considered elite, but still very good and then who knows. Maybe its just old, but still good.

Shawtstop:

NL
1) Jose Reyes, NYM - I personally think the k/bb from '06 is for real and that he'll be an incredible player for the next 10 years. He's only 23 years old and seems to be over his injury issues, the power that he's developing is incredible. Even if he fills out just a bit, he could be twice as good as everyone seems to think Carl Crawford is (and he is, but he's not the player Reyes is looking like).
2) Stephen Drew, Ari
3) Hanley Ramirez, Fla - Talk about an infusion of young shortstops. Much like the AL in the late 90s with Nomar, Cap'n'Jetes and A-rod, this lineup is nearly just as good. Throw in Tulowitzki and Hardy (if he can stay on the field) and you have 5 top notch shotstops all beginning their careers at the same time. Hanley is just as good of a pick as Drew is, and just as good of a keeper. I'd like to see another year because of how much scouts said he "was too raw," whatever being raw is, but if last year was any indication of what Hanley can do, he should have a great '07.
4) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
5) Rafael Furcal, LAD - Definitely still "young" but he may not be the player everyone thought he would become.
6) Troy Tulowitzki, Col - This is where the drop off comes from the 2nd tier to the 3rd tier. Tulowitzki might be good, but I highly doubt he'll be as good as Furcal next year and most certainly none of the others. I also tend to think the rest of the NL SS options are garbage.
7) Felipe Lopez, Was
8) J.J. Hardy, Mil
9) Edgar Renteria, Atl - He's seriously no good. A little story about how hyped this guy was; two years ago in 2004, my first year I started playing, I was watching some live experts draft on mlb.com in my dorm room. The 10th pick in the draft was held by some guy who was described as "never making mistakes" in his draft strategy and he selected none other than Renteria. That may have been a mistake. Renteria's been overhyped his whole career and I wouldn't pick him up unless it was absolutely necessary.
X) Khalil Green, SD - I once knew a girl who's mom liked the Padres and she told me "I think Khalil Greene is the best shortstop in baseball."

AL
1) Derek Jeter, NYY - Jeter won't nearly be as good as he was in '06; he'll already be 32 and the Yankees aren't going to get any better with the current FA market, which doesn't matter, really, but he just can't possibly reproduce his best season since 1999.
2) Miguel Tejada, Bal - I still hate him but he's still good.
3) Michael Young, Tex - Durability issues? I don't know. He's played in at least 156 games every year since 2002 and is already going to be 30 next year. There was a 10 HR drop in power, walks and Ks stayed the same, and he got basically the same amount of hits in roughly the same amount of PAs. I suspect he was just a little lucky last year and isn't breaking down just yet. He had 12 more doubles than he did last year and a few of those should turn into home runs next year. A top of the line shortstop, I just don't think he'll hit above .330 again.
4) Troy Glaus, Tor
5) Carlos Guillen, Det - I've underrated him for years, so I don't know. 5 years of single digit home run totals and a ton of nagging health issues, and then two great years one at 28 (expected) and the other at 30 (unexpected, if only because it was 2 career years instead of one, not because of the age). Regardless, I draft with caution because of his health problems and odd career trends and because I just don't think Detroit is going to be as good next year, assuming they don't make any huge moves.
6) Bobby Crosby, Oak - My MVP pick last year was kind of a bust. Very high upside, but the time away could obviously hurt and the mere fact that he's seemingly a huge injury risk means pouncing on him in the mid rounds as if he's a steal isn't too smart.
7) Jason Bartlett, Min
8) Jhonny Peralta, Cle - Talk about a fall from grace. My 4th round pick last year didn't merit the time I gave him on my roster for two months let alone four and a half. A darling of fantasy baseball managers last year averaging a 7th round pick, he's not only in the fantasy "dog-house" he's also in Manager Eric Wedge's dog-house. He's probably a big trading piece for the Indians next year but I don't think they should move him. He's bound to at least improve a little even if it isn't at the clip he produced at in 2005.
9) B.J. Upton, TB - I'm not a believer and neither is the Devil Rays front office, apparently.
X) Orlando Cabrera, Ana

MLB
1) Jose Reyes, NYM
2) Cap'n'Jetes, NYY
3) Miguel Tejada, Bal
4) Michael Young, Tex
5) Stephen Drew, Ari
6) Hanley Ramirez, Fla
7) Troy Glaus, Tor
8) Jimmy Rollins, Phi
9) Rafael Furcal, LAD
10) Carlos Guillen, Det
11) Troy Tulowitzki, Col
12) Bobby Crosby, Oak
13) Felipe Lopez, Was
14) Jhonny Peralta, Cle
15) B.J. Upton, TB

Overall a very strong position with an influx of youngsters for the future. The position will be as strong as ever for the next few years and finding a top-tier shortstop won't be as much of a struggle as it once was.

Sgt.Cradnial's

Behind the law degree of Tony Larussa the Saint Louis Cardinals won the World Series last night. I guess congratulations are due? David "Not Jewish" Eckstein won the MVP because, much like Jermaine Dye, he had a high batting average, even though Scott Rolen was probably the Cardinals best hitter going 8-19 with five runs scored, three doubles and a home run.

It's cold and I want to take a shower, but i'll get to this before I do. Second base rankings for 2007:

NL
1) Chase Utley, Phi
2) Marcus Giles, Atl
3) Jeff Kent, LAD
4) Dan Uggla, Fla
5) Ryan Theriot, ChC - I was surprised by this kids bat. If Piniella can tolerate a youngster in the lineup, he'd better do it with Theriot. Could arguably be ranked as high as #2 simply because I don't like any of the other NL 2B besides Utley
6) Julio Lugo, FA
7) Jose Valentin, NYM
8) Jose Castillo, Pit
9) Brandon Phillips, Cin
X) Bill Hall, Mil - His enormous k/bb rate determines where he falls here. I just can never, ever trust a guy like this because he's far too prone to slumps

AL
1) Ian Kinsler, Tex - I'm high on him in that I think he's could be the best 2B in the AL in terms of fantasy production; HR, SB, and AVG. But there's also a slight possibility that Texas realizes Michael Young isn't that good of a SS and moves him to second, putting Kinsler at his original position. It would give Kinsler 2B/SS elig. for two more years with possible 15-20 HR/15-20SB seasons ahead of him makes him a very attractive piece.
2) Robinson Cano, NYY
3) Howie Kendrick, Ana - I'll have to see more power from him before I rank him any higher, even if he can hit.
4) Brian Roberts, Bal
5) Luis Castillo, Min
6) Tadahito Iguchi, ChW
7) Jorge Cantu, TB
8) Dustin Pedroia, Bos
9) Mark Ellis, Oak
X) Placido Polanco, Det

MLB
1) Chase Utley, Phi - It's undeniable how good Utley really is. Even if he were an outfielder or first baseman his value wouldn't diminish much. The fact that he's a second baseman makes him a legitimate first round pick.
2) Ian Kinsler, Tex
3) Robinson Cano, NYY
4) Marcus Giles, Atl
5) Jeff Kent, LAD
6) Ryan Theriot, ChC
7) Howie Kendrick, Ana
8) Brian Roberts, Bal
9) Dan Uggla, Fla - Sorry, I just really don't see him being able to build on last year. Guys who break the majors at 26 and do that don't come along very often, and there's a good reason for it.
10) Julio Lugo, FA - Cound change depending on where he ends up; i.e. staying in LA makes him almost worthless, just as it did last year. But going to a team like the Red Sox or White Sox rates him much higher.
11) Jorge Cantu, TB
12) Luis Castillo, Min
13) Bill Hall, Mil
14) Tadahito Iguchi, ChW
15) Jose Valentin, NYM

Verlander vs. Rogers

Everyone is making a big fucking stink about how Jim Leyland isn't starting Kenny Rogers and instead starting Justin Verlander, who is on schedule to start, and who should be starting. Leyland's argument for starting Verlander is that he doesn't want to "start Kenny in this environment." This environment? What environment? The offensive blood red stands that is "Cardinal Nation?" Give me a break. First of all, it doesn't matter who's starting, the odds are in the Cardinals favor plain and simple. Take away the whole "environment" craze, and Verlander should be starting anyway. He can throw 99 mph with a mediocre curve. Kenny Rogers throws like 86 with his hand covered in shit; excuse while I take Verlander for now and for the rest of his career.

General thoughts on the World Series; I've taken a liking to the Cardinals for a number of reasons - one being that, for some reason, I've come to really like Chris Carpenter and watching the way he pitches. I don't know why. He's really good. Not great, but really good. He always has his mouth open but not in a bad Darin Erstad/John Lackey way. Instead it's like a "I can't stop chewing this gum with my mouth open" way. Adam Wainwright is another reason. Jason Isringhausen held a lot of weight as to why I hated this team; sure there's old guys like Edmonds, boring pitchers like Weaver, Marquis, the third base equivalent of the hapless Paul Konerko, Scott Rolen. But Isringhausen is bad. He was terrible this year, he's been declining for the past two, and to see a pitcher like Wainwright to step into that role a week before the season ends, pitching the way he is, is nice. I won't get all worked up about it, but it's nice.

The Tigers are finished. It'll be interesting to see what they do next year, specifically with Joel Zumaya. A starter throughout the minor leagues with fear of injury and an inability to repeat his mechanics, I wonder if they'll try him in the rotation. With Jones on for another year (who they could most definitely try to trade, although with his ties to the organization and Leyland's boner for him, I doubt it) and a starting rotation that can't be expected to do what it did this year, why not try to start Zumaya and get 185 innings out of him? I say no...but it's definitely a possibility. Start looking at next year, Tigers fans, because the Cardinals are one Chris Carpenter start away from being the 2006 World Series champions.

Here are the post-regular season first base rankings:

NL
1) Albert Pujols, StL
2) Ryan Howard, Phi
3) Lance Berkman, Hou
4) Derrek Lee, ChC
5) Prince Fielder, Mil - 2007's Ryan Howard?
6) Adam Dunn, Cin - He just can't make enough contact to be considered any higher, maybe not even enough for OPS leagues.
7) Carlos Delgado, NYM - Expect some serious decline in the next two years.
8) Nick Johnson, Was - I don't know if severely broken legs can hamper a career, but if they can, consider Nick the Stick dead.
9) Nomar Garciaparra, ?
X) Conor Jackson, Ari

AL
1) David Ortiz, Bos - Will have 1B elig. because, unlike the Indians, the Red Sox are smart enough to play their semi-capable DH in NL parks for interleague games.
2) Mark Teixeira, Tex
3) Justin Morneau, Min - I don't believe he can repeat '06. He's very good, but he was too good to keep it up.
4) Paul Konerko, ChW - You know exactly what you're getting; 35+/100+/.295
5) Jason Giambi, NYY
6) Nick Swisher, Oak - I'm not ready to call him the AL's Adam Dunn, but it's close.
7) Richie Sexson, Sea
8) Lyle Overbay, Tor
9) Victor Martinez, Cle
X) Howie Kendrick, Ana

MLB
1) Albert Pujols, StL
2) Ryan Howard, Phi
3) David Ortiz, Bos
4) Lance Berkman, Hou
5) Mark Teixeira, Tex
6) Justin Morneau, Min
7) Derrek Lee, ChC
8) Paul Konerko, ChW
9) Jason Giambi, NYY
10) Prince Fielder, Mil
11) Adam Dunn, Cin
12) Carlos Delgado, NYM
13) Nick Johnson, Was
14) Richie Sexson, Sea
15) Nick Swisher, Oak

YO, DIS BLOG IZ FREE

So I started this blog years ago. I tried my damnedest to get into the blogging world; all of two posts (which have subsequently been deleted because of their ultimate lameness and my inability to analyze baseball players correctly). But this will be a real attempt because I've actually discovered something that I know quite well; Fantasy Baseball.

Not to gloat, but since 2004 I have finished in third place or better in six of the seven leagues I've ever been in (the 7th being fourth place in my first league ever), winning one of them and finishing 2nd three times. So I guess you could say that I might kind of know what I'm doing. This forum will be an attempt to share that knowledge with you, the lucky reader. The off-season is long in baseball, and I'm sure you'll need something to read; I will attempt to provide that to give you the tools to win (or in this case, just beat me to every move I make because the only people who read this are people who are in my league).

After every regular season ends (so my mind isn't clouded with playoff performances a la Carlos Beltran 2004) I rank my players by NL & AL and then across the majors. I make little notes on who I think is going to improve, decline, breakout, fall apart, etc. I don't think I'm going to give those out quite yet, but I'll make a couple comments on what I'm expecting from player A or player B.

So to start out, catcher rankings for 2006:

NL
1) Brian McCann, Atl - The kid can seriously rake. Without a doubt the 2nd best catcher in the game.
2) Michael Barrett, ChC
3) Russell Martin, LAD - Would you look at that talent drop off like a wedding ring down the drain?
4) Ronny Paulino, Pit
5) Mike Piazza, SD
6) Paul LoDuca, NYM
7) Mike Lieberthal, Phi
8) Yadier Molina, StL
9) ?
X) ?

AL
1) Joe Mauer, Min
2) Victor Martinez, Cle - Last year of elig at C (at least I would guess the Indians are smart enough to make it so).
3) Kenji Johjima, Sea - Could see a big improvement; much better than Iguchi, but no where near Ichiro or Hideki.
4) Jason Variktek, Bos
5) Jorge Posada, NYY - Suprisingly decent last year, I had him cooked.
6) Ramon Hernandez, Bal
7) Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis, Ana - Napoli was terrible down the stretch and the Angels always liked Mathis more anyway. It might merit to be watched over the winter + into spring training.
8) A.J. Pierzynski, ChW
9) Ivan Rodriguez, Det
X) Jason Kendall, Oak - I think Oakland (FA?). Ranked only because of his 2nd half; if you can consider getting ranked 10th a compliment

MLB
1) Joe Mauer, Min
2) Brian McCann, Atl
3) Victor Martinez, Cle
4) Michael Barrett, ChC
5) Kenji Johjima, Sea
6) Russell Martin, LAD
7) Jason Varitek, Bos
8) Jorge Posada, NYY
9) Ramon Hernandez, Bal
10) Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis, Ana
11) A.J. Pierzynski, ChW
12) Ronny Paulino, Pit
13) Paul Lo Duca, NYM
14) Ivan Rodriguez, Det
15) Mike Pizza, SD